ADM

ADM's earnings have collapsed from their 2022 peak: net income ran $4.34B (FY2022) → $3.48B (FY2023) → $1.80B (FY2024) → $1.08B (FY2025), down 40.1% YoY and roughly 75% below the peak, with diluted EPS at $2.23, gross profit off 12.9%, net margin compressed to 4.3% and ROE a weak 4.7%. The MD&A pins the squeeze on macro and policy forces, not franchise erosion: 'increased global supplies of grains and oilseeds, higher projected ending stocks-to-use ratios, the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy, the evolving global trade landscape, and logistical and weather challenges' compressed Ag Services & Oilseeds margins, while the postponement of the EU Deforestation Regulation and deferred U.S. biofuel/trade policy hit Crushing and Refined Products volumes. These are cyclical/policy headwinds outside management's control, and the filing shows no clear inflection.

The balance sheet and cash generation are the saving grace. Operating cash flow nearly doubled to $5.45B (+95.4%), though that is largely working-capital release as commodity prices and inventories unwound rather than improved earnings quality — a reason not to extrapolate it. Against ~$1.25B capex, free cash flow comfortably covers the $987M dividend; cash rose 66% to $1.01B, long-term debt fell 12.8% to $6.61B against $22.7B of equity (debt/equity ~0.34), and the current ratio sits at 1.37. Management announced a >$500M cost-savings program over 3–5 years plus portfolio simplification, but buybacks were paused entirely ($0 vs. prior years) and a $179M impairment on capitalized internal-use software flags a messy digital pivot.