AES

AES is a global independent power producer in mid-transition from thermal to renewables, and the 2025 numbers show a business that is operationally steady but financially stretched. Revenue was essentially flat at $12.2B (-0.4%), yet net income fell 45.8% to $910M and diluted EPS dropped to $1.26 (-46.6%). That decline is less a collapse than a normalization: FY2024's $1.68B was inflated by one-time items the 10-K itself flags — a $312M gain on the AES Brasil sale and a $52M Uplight dilution gain — which did not repeat, while 2025 absorbed a fresh $264M Maritza impairment (after its PPA expiration) and a $283M jump in 'other expense' from sales-type lease and contingent-consideration losses at AES Clean Energy. Earnings here are inherently lumpy: the five-year net-income track (-$409M, -$546M, $249M, $1.68B, $910M) is dominated by impairments, asset sales and FX, so any single year's EPS — and the resulting 11.6x P/E — should be read with caution.

The genuine bright spot is cash. Operating cash flow surged 56.5% to $4.31B, the restructuring program cut G&A 16% to $241M, and interest expense fell 5% to $1.4B as Brazil debt left the books — evidence the deleveraging and cost discipline are real. But capex of $5.93B still exceeds operating cash flow, so the company remains free-cash-flow negative while funding its renewables build-out, and it is doing so off a thin equity base: $4.06B of equity supports $51.8B of assets, meaning the headline 22.4% ROE is largely a leverage artifact, not superior profitability (net margin is only 7.4%). Current liabilities ($8.49B) exceed current assets ($6.50B), and cash of $1.38B is modest against a $1.4B annual interest bill.