AKBA

Akebia has engineered a genuine operational turnaround. FY2025 revenue jumped 47.5% to $236M, operating income swung to a positive $23.5M (+146.6%), net loss narrowed to just -$5.34M (from -$69.4M a year ago), and — most telling — operating cash flow more than tripled to $68M. Against a $332M market cap that is a ~20% operating-cash-flow yield, and P/S of only 1.4x is undemanding for a company this close to sustained GAAP profitability. Cash ballooned 256% to $185M, comfortably above the BlackRock covenant floor of $15M cash / $150M TTM revenue, so near-term solvency is not the issue.

The catch is what drove the 2025 number and what happens next. Auryxia — historically a meaningful revenue contributor — hit loss of exclusivity in March 2025, and per the 10-K, Teva received tentative ANDA approval on January 22, 2026 with management explicitly warning that additional generic entry in 2026 'will adversely impact our revenue.' A chunk of the FY2025 revenue base is therefore structurally eroding. The bull case now rests almost entirely on Vafseo, launched January 2025 into a ~$1B U.S. dialysis-anemia market, with prescribing access already at ~290,000 dialysis patients. If Vafseo's ramp outpaces Auryxia's decline, the cash-flow story compounds; if not, 2026 revenue and the fragile profitability reverse.