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Research & education only — not financial advice.TENK is not a registered investment adviser; calls are impersonal, generated from SEC filings and a delayed/third-party price feed, and may be wrong or out of date. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates — see Disclosures. Do your own research.

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Home›Stocks›ALK

ALK

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.

Next earnings Jul 16, 2026 · consensus $-0.91 EPS, $4.14B rev

Hold
$51.09
▼ -1.62%
$51.09▲ +3.48%
over 1Y
L $34.19H $63.86
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-1.6%
1W-4.1%
1M+16.4%
3M+36.9%
YTD-0.8%
1Y+3.5%
OverviewFinancialsValuationQualityTimelineFilings
Rating
Hold
Quality
C
Valuation
Overvalued
Filings
Watch
Hold
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
Street · 22 analysts
Buy

Revenue surged 21% but earnings collapsed 75% as margins thinned — a cheap-on-sales airline with integration and cyclical risk.

Revenue $14.2B · FY2025

The read

Middling fundamentals and a rich price (~88% above fair value) leave little margin of safety — a wait-and-see.

Alaska Air Group put up sharply higher revenue in FY2025 — up 21.3% to $14.2B — reflecting a much larger network and scale than a year earlier. But the growth came at a steep cost to profitability: operating income fell 46.8% to $303M and net income collapsed 74.7% to just $100M, leaving razor-thin margins of 2.1% operating and 0.7% net and a 2.4% ROE. The combination of surging revenue and falling profit is the signature of a major integration that has expanded the top line while loading in costs that have yet to convert into synergy-driven earnings.

The airline model's structural challenges are on full display. Depreciation rose 36.4% to $795M as the fleet and asset base grew, long-term debt increased to $4.77B, and cash fell 47.8% to $627M, with current liabilities ($6.59B) well above current assets ($3.27B). That said, the business still generated $1.25B of operating cash flow, and management returned capital aggressively — $570M of buybacks (up 82.7%), cutting shares 6.9% — signaling confidence that earnings power will recover as integration costs roll off.

AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.

Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 4:58 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.

Financials · annual, by fiscal year

Line itemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue—$9.65B$10.4B$11.7B$14.2B
Gross profit—————
Operating income$685M$70.0M$394M$570M$303M
Net income$478M$58.0M$235M$395M$100M
Diluted EPS$3.77$0.45$1.83$3.08$0.83
Net margin—0.6%2.3%3.4%0.7%

Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.

Key statistics

Valuation

Enterprise value$10.4B
EV / EBITDA9.4
EV / Sales0.7
EV / FCF—
P / FCF—
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield1.8%
FCF yield-4.3%

Quality & risk

ROIC (est.)2.5%
Free cash flow-$245M
Total debt$5.31B
Net cash-$4.68B
Piotroski F-Score5/8

Capital returns

Buyback yield10.0%
Dividend yield (est.)0.0%
Shareholder yield10.0%
Shares Δ YoY-6.9%

Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.

Disclosure timeline

SEC · 8-Ks + reports
Some governance/structural items recently, but no outright red flags.
  1. 8-K Officer / director change2026-06-17
  2. 8-K Officer / director change2026-06-03
  3. 8-K Shareholder vote2026-05-14
  4. 8-K Material agreement2026-05-12
  5. 8-K Other event2026-05-07
  6. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-07
  7. 8-K Other event2026-05-06
  8. DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-03-30
  9. 10-K Annual report2026-02-12

Recent filings

all on EDGAR ↗
4Period ending 2026-06-292026-06-30open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-172026-06-17open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-012026-06-03open ↗3Period ending 2026-06-012026-06-03open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-032026-06-03open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗

Quality score

C
ValueGrowthProfitHealthMom.
ValueC
GrowthC-
ProfitabilityD
Financial healthA-
MomentumC
  • ✓Revenue growing year-over-year
  • ✓Profitable (positive net income)
  • ✗Net margin above 10%
  • ✗Return on equity above 15%
  • ✗P/E below 25

Fair value est.

$6.03

Overvalued -88% vs price

cheapfair valueexpensive

Modified Graham: EPS $0.83 × (8.5 + 1.5 × 0.0% growth) × 0.85 quality = 7.3× multiple. An estimate, not a price target.

34.1952-week63.86
Revenue
$14.2B
+21.3% YoY
Net margin
0.7%
ROE
2.4%
P/E
61.6

SEC fundamentals · FY 2025

'21'22'23'24'25

■ revenue · ■ net income, by fiscal year

Revenue$14.2B+21.3%
Net income$100M-74.7%
Operating income$303M-46.8%
Diluted EPS$0.83-73.1%
Cash & equivalents$627M-47.8%
Total assets$20.4B+3.0%
Stockholders' equity$4.12B-5.8%
Op.: 2.1%

Frequently asked

Is ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) a buy?
ALK currently carries a Hold rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Revenue surged 21% but earnings collapsed 75% as margins thinned — a cheap-on-sales airline with integration and cyclical risk.
What is ALK's fair value?
A Modified-Graham model based on ALK's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $6.03. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
Is ALK overvalued or undervalued?
Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, ALK currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
What is ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.'s quality score?
ALK scores 58.08815436000512/100 (grade C) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000766421, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 8:58:38 PM.

Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.

Insider activity

Form 4 · SEC
2026-06-01
SIEVERT G MICHAEL
Director
Award4.26K @ $44.52$190K
2026-05-13
Hogan Kathleen T
Director
Award5.19K @ $38.56$200K
2026-05-13
YEAMAN ERIC K
Director
Award5.19K @ $38.56$200K
2026-05-13
Shimer Peter A
Director
Award5.19K @ $38.56$200K
2026-05-13
SANDVIK HELVI KAY
Director
Award5.19K @ $38.56$200K
2026-05-13
LOFTON ADRIENNE ROCHELLE
Director
Award5.19K @ $38.56$200K
2026-05-13
ELWELL DANIEL KEVIN
Director
Award2.59K @ $38.56$100.0K
2026-05-13
ELWELL DANIEL KEVIN
Director
Award2.59K @ $38.56$100.0K

Dividends

Irregular
Yield (TTM)
—
Annual / share
—
Last ex-date
2020-02-14
Last amount
$0.38
ex 2020-02-14paid 2020-03-05$0.38
ex 2019-11-18paid 2019-12-05$0.35
ex 2019-08-19paid 2019-09-05$0.35
ex 2019-05-20paid 2019-06-06$0.35
ex 2019-02-15paid 2019-03-07$0.35
ex 2018-11-19paid 2018-12-06$0.32

Source: EODHD. Yield = trailing-12-month dividends ÷ price.

Earnings history

beat/miss · move
2026-04-20Miss -23.6% est▼ -4.10%8-K ↗
2026-01-22Beat +249.9% est▼ -0.20%8-K ↗
2025-10-24Miss -7.8% est▼ -6.13%8-K ↗
2025-07-23Beat +14.3% est▲ +1.55%8-K ↗
2025-04-23—▲ +2.60%8-K ↗
2025-01-22—▼ -2.15%8-K ↗

Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.

Congressional trades

all activity →

Disclosed under the STOCK Act

2025-11-14Julie JohnsonSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2025-08-13Lisa McClainSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2025-08-13Lisa McClainBuy$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2025-08-08Adam SmithSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2024-01-04Earl BlumenauerSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2022-10-05Earl BlumenauerBuy$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2020-04-27Donna ShalalaSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2020-04-27Donna ShalalaSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗

Self-reported periodic transaction reports (STOCK Act). Amounts are disclosed ranges; a trade may be a spouse's. Disclosures lag the trade by up to ~45 days. Source: House Clerk + Senate eFD.

Recent news

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finance.yahoo.com· 2026-07-02
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finance.yahoo.com· 2026-06-29

Vs tracked universe

compare →

1194 tracked peers · median

TENK Score58 vs 67
Revenue growth21.3% vs 7.5%
Net margin0.7% vs 10.0%
Return on equity2.4% vs 12.0%
P/E61.6 vs 26.2

News sentiment

EODHD · 45d
Bearish
-0.04
vs typical · 166 articles
↑ improving

Recent news tone vs the market's typical (which skews positive). A soft signal, not a recommendation.