AOS
SMITH A O CORP
Next earnings Jul 20, 2026 · consensus $0.94 EPS, $1.01B rev
Last earnings -2.3% on 2026-04-30
$62.72
▲ +1.69%$62.72▼ -2.45%
over 1Y
L $55.78H $80.02
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+1.7%
1W+2.6%
1M+10.5%
3M-2.0%
YTD-7.2%
1Y-2.5%
Hold
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 18 analysts
Buy
High-quality water-heater cash machine — 29% ROE, fortress balance sheet — but flat revenue and a China overhang cap it at a fair 16x.
Return on equity 29.4% · FY2025
The read
Middling fundamentals and a rich price (~29% above fair value) leave little margin of safety — a wait-and-see.
A.O. Smith is a textbook quality-but-stalled compounder. Profitability and returns are excellent: 38.8% gross margin (up from 38.1% in 2024), 19.0% operating margin, 14.3% net margin, and a 29.4% ROE — all on a fortress balance sheet with just $113M long-term debt against $1.86B equity (0.69x liabilities/equity). Free cash flow is the story: $617M operating cash flow against only $70.8M capex (down 34%) funds $401M of buybacks (shares down 3.4%) and $196M of dividends. Diluted EPS grew 6.1% almost entirely on the share count, not the business.
The problem is the top line has flatlined for three years — revenue was $3.85B in 2023, $3.82B in 2024, $3.83B in 2025 (+0.3% YoY). The MD&A explains why: North America water-heater sales grew just 1% as pricing and commercial volume offset weaker residential wholesale, and management projects 2026 residential industry units 'flat to down' on new-construction softness. Rest of World is the drag — China third-party sales fell 12% in local currency in 2025 on weak consumer demand and the end of government appliance subsidies, and 2026 is guided down mid-single digits, with a still-'ongoing' strategic assessment of the China business signaling real uncertainty there. Offsets exist: boilers grew 8% (guided +6-8%), water treatment guided +10-12%, and the DOE commercial-efficiency rule effective October 2026 should drive a mid-single-digit commercial buy-ahead. Full-year 2026 consolidated guidance is a modest +2-5%.
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 30, 2026, 9:50 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.54B | $3.75B | $3.85B | $3.82B | $3.83B |
| Gross profit | $1.31B | $1.33B | $1.48B | $1.46B | $1.49B |
| Operating income | $682M | $362M | $746M | $708M | $729M |
| Net income | $487M | $236M | $557M | $534M | $546M |
| Diluted EPS | $3.02 | $1.51 | $3.69 | $3.63 | $3.85 |
| Net margin | 13.8% | 6.3% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 14.3% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$8.63B
EV / EBITDA10.6
EV / Sales2.3
EV / FCF15.8
P / FCF15.8
PEG (trailing)6.90
Earnings yield6.3%
FCF yield6.3%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)28.6%
Free cash flow$546M
Total debt$155M
Net cash$19.5M
Altman Z-Score7.94 safe
Piotroski F-Score8/9
Capital returns
Buyback yield4.6%
Dividend yield (est.)2.3%
Shareholder yield6.9%
Shares Δ YoY-3.4%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRecent disclosure tone has been improving.
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-06-22
Disclosed officer/director appointment or departure (Item 5.02)
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-05-19
Second leadership change (director/officer election or departure)
- 8-K Earnings results2026-04-30
Q1 2026: Leonard Valve integrating; China soft, N. America pricing holds
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-04-30
Q1 2026: Leonard Valve integrating; China soft, N. America pricing holds
- 8-K Shareholder vote2026-04-17
Reported annual shareholder meeting voting results
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-03-04
- 10-K Annual report2026-02-10
FY25 sales flat $3.83B, EPS +6% to $3.85, margin up; China demand weak
- 8-K Earnings results2026-01-29
FY2025 results: EPS +6% to $3.85 on flat $3.83B sales, margins up
- 8-K New financial obligation2026-01-06
New bank term loan taken on to fund $470M Leonard Valve acquisition
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗4Period ending 2026-07-012026-07-02open ↗3Period ending 2026-07-012026-07-02open ↗11-KPeriod ending 2025-12-312026-06-26open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-222026-06-22open ↗SDFiling2026-05-21open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-192026-05-19open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-06open ↗4/APeriod ending 2026-04-232026-05-01open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-04-30open ↗UPLOADFiling2026-04-30open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-302026-04-30open ↗CORRESPFiling2026-04-29open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is SMITH A O CORP (AOS) a buy?
- AOS currently carries a Hold rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. High-quality water-heater cash machine — 29% ROE, fortress balance sheet — but flat revenue and a China overhang cap it at a fair 16x.
- What is AOS's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on AOS's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $44.50. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, AOS currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is SMITH A O CORP's quality score?
- AOS scores 69.92639328965703/100 (grade B-) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000091142, latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-30) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 7/1/2026, 1:50:42 AM.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.