ATKR

Atkore is a textbook post-boom cyclical. Revenue ran from $2.93B (FY2021) to a $3.91B/$913M-net-income peak in FY2022 — driven by extraordinary PVC-conduit pricing during the supply shortage — and has unwound every year since: $3.52B, $3.20B, and now $2.85B (-11.0% YoY) with a -$15.2M net loss. Gross profit fell -37.3% to $676M and operating income collapsed -96.3% to $23.2M, so margins (23.7% gross, 0.8% operating, -0.5% net) reflect pricing reverting toward normal. The top line is still falling, and there is no figure in the data showing the decline has bottomed — that is the core reason this is not yet a buy.

But the GAAP loss overstates the distress. The audit report's critical-audit-matter flags a goodwill impairment recorded in FY2025 — a non-cash charge — while the business still generated $403M of operating cash flow against only $107M of capex (~$296M free cash flow). Against a $2.54B market cap that is a double-digit cash-flow yield, and P/S sits at just 0.9x. The balance sheet is genuinely strong: $507M cash (+44.2%), $757M long-term debt, $1.40B equity (liabilities/equity 1.04x), and a 3.0x current ratio. Net debt is modest, so the company is not financially stressed despite the earnings air-pocket. Management is still returning capital ($100M of buybacks in FY2025, $328M remaining on the authorization, plus a quarterly dividend), which signals confidence rather than retrenchment.