CARR

Carrier has reshaped itself into a pure-play climate-and-energy business (Viessmann acquired Jan-2024; Fire & Security, Access Solutions and CCR divested; Riello sale agreed for ~$430M, closing 1H2026), and the underlying franchise is genuinely good: industry-leading brands, secular tailwinds the 10-K leans on (electrification, urbanization, food/cold-chain, digitalization), and FY2025 operating cash flow of $2.51B (+346.4%) that comfortably funds $2.89B of buybacks and $772M of dividends. Management also states it 'fully mitigated the impact of tariffs during 2025' via supply-chain moves, productivity and ~$200M of pricing — a real positive against a noisy macro backdrop.

But the numbers temper the enthusiasm. Revenue fell -3.3% to $21.7B, so this is a shrinking, not growing, top line. The headline net-income collapse (-73.5% to $1.48B) is largely optics — FY2024's $5.60B was inflated by divestiture gains — yet even the cleaner read is unimpressive: operating income fell -17.9% to $2.17B, leaving a thin 10.0% operating margin, 6.8% net margin and only a 10.5% ROE for a 'premium' industrial. The balance sheet is adequate but not pristine: $11.4B long-term debt against $14.1B equity (1.63x liabilities/equity) and cash down -60.8% to $1.55B, drained partly by the aggressive buyback.