CEG

CEG is the highest-quality way to play structural US power demand — a nuclear-heavy generator now scaled up by the closed Calpine acquisition, with explicit growth levers in the filing: $3.9B of growth capex for the Crane Clean Energy Center restart, nuclear uprates, license renewals, and co-location infrastructure aimed squarely at data-center load. The cash engine looks healthy: FY2025 operating cash flow jumped +272% to $4.24B, revenue grew +19.5% to $22.7B, ROE is a respectable 16.0%, and the debt stack is conservative — $7.25B long-term debt against $14.5B equity and $3.64B cash, with current debt collapsing to $92M. Moody's and S&P affirmed investment grade (Baa1/BBB+) in January 2026 after the deal closed.

But the stock already prices in the good story. At $274.06 the shares trade at 37.0x FY2025 diluted EPS and 4.4x sales, and those earnings went the wrong way: net income fell -38.1% to $2.32B and diluted EPS -37.8% to $7.40, dragged partly by a 15.7% increase in share count (362M) tied to Calpine consideration. The five-year history (net losses of -$205M in FY2021 and -$160M in FY2022, then a $3.75B FY2024 that fell back to $2.32B) shows merchant/IPP earnings are genuinely volatile, so a 37x multiple on a down year is demanding.