CHDN
Churchill Downs Inc
Next earnings Jul 21, 2026 (after close) · consensus $3.49 EPS, $997M rev
Last earnings -2.1% on 2026-04-22
$90.91
▲ +0.04%$90.91▼ -9.60%
over 1Y
L $83.07H $117.59
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+0.0%
1W+8.3%
1M+3.8%
3M+2.1%
YTD-18.8%
1Y-9.6%
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 19 analysts
Buy
Iconic Kentucky Derby owner compounding gaming revenue with strong cash flow at 16x; debt and a soft 2025 EPS dip are the watch items.
Revenue (FY2025) $2.93B · FY2025
The read
The fundamentals carry the rating, but the price is rich (~49% above our fair-value estimate) — a quality-at-a-price call. The case rests on the business, not the entry; patient buyers may wait for a pullback.
Churchill Downs owns one of the most durable assets in American entertainment — the Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs Racetrack — alongside a diversified portfolio of regional casinos, historical-racing machine (HRM) venues, and online wagering (TwinSpires). The growth engine keeps running: FY2025 revenue rose 7.0% to $2.93B, extending a steady climb from $1.60B in FY2021, and operating margin remained strong at 23.4%. The Derby franchise gives the company genuine pricing power and a defensible moat that regional gaming peers lack.
Reported net income fell 10.3% to $383M (EPS $5.49), but the dip is largely explained by investment-cycle costs rather than operating weakness: depreciation and amortization jumped 17.1% to $233M (reflecting completed capital projects coming online) and long-term debt rose 4.6% to $5.07B (higher interest). Operating income was nearly flat (-3.6% to $684M) and operating cash flow held steady at $770M, so the underlying cash generation is intact. Management deployed that cash aggressively into buybacks — $428M, up 130%, shrinking shares 5.2% — a strong signal of confidence and the reason ROE screens at 37.9% against a thin, buyback-reduced $1.01B equity base.
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 4:54 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.60B | $1.81B | $2.46B | $2.73B | $2.93B |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $284M | $322M | $564M | $709M | $684M |
| Net income | $249M | $439M | $417M | $427M | $383M |
| Diluted EPS | $3.18 | $5.71 | $5.49 | — | — |
| Net margin | 15.6% | 24.3% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 13.1% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$11.3B
EV / EBITDA12.3
EV / Sales3.9
EV / FCF15.2
P / FCF8.6
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield6.0%
FCF yield11.7%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)8.8%
Free cash flow$740M
Total debt$5.13B
Net cash-$4.93B
Altman Z-Score1.43 distress
Piotroski F-Score6/8
Capital returns
Buyback yield6.8%
Dividend yield (est.)0.5%
Shareholder yield7.2%
Shares Δ YoY-5.2%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRoutine disclosure cadence — no material red flags in recent filings.
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-212026-04-23open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-212026-04-23open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-212026-04-23open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-212026-04-23open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-212026-04-23open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-212026-04-23open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-04-22open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-222026-04-22open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-212026-04-21open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-312026-04-06open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-03-26open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) a buy?
- CHDN currently carries a Buy rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Iconic Kentucky Derby owner compounding gaming revenue with strong cash flow at 16x; debt and a soft 2025 EPS dip are the watch items.
- What is CHDN's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on CHDN's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $46.20. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is CHDN overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, CHDN currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is Churchill Downs Inc's quality score?
- CHDN scores 62.991307358340215/100 (grade C+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000020212, latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-22) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 8:54:37 PM.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.