CMG

Chipotle remains a genuinely high-quality operator: no long-term debt, $2.11B of operating cash flow, 16.2% operating margins and a 54.3% return on equity. But the FY2025 numbers mark a clear inflection from growth machine to maturing chain. Revenue rose just 5.4% to $11.9B — a sharp deceleration from the prior pace (FY2024 was +14.6% to $11.3B) — and net income was essentially flat at $1.54B (+0.1%). Diluted EPS of $1.14 grew only 2.7%, and much of that came from a 3.9% reduction in shares, not operating gains.

The filing tells you why this is the real concern: comparable restaurant sales DECLINED 1.7%, driven by a 2.9% drop in transactions only partly offset by a 1.2% higher average check. Underlying traffic is shrinking, and the entire revenue increase came from new units — the MD&A bridge shows +$327M and +$481.8M from restaurants not yet in the comparable base, against a -$191.3M drag from comps. Management guides 2026 comps to 'about flat,' so the growth story now rests almost entirely on opening 350–370 restaurants a year, not on getting more out of the existing base. Cost discipline held food/packaging at 29.6% of revenue, but newly enacted 2025 tariffs (~15 bps drag) plus beef and chicken inflation are fresh pressures.