CON

Concentra is the largest US occupational health provider (628 standalone centers + 411 onsite clinics across 47 states), and the model is working at the top line: FY2025 revenue grew +13.9% to $2.16B, juiced by the March 2025 Nova acquisition (67 centers, $265M purchase price). Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded modestly to 20.0% from 19.8%, and operating income rose +9.6% to $334M. The franchise is durable — workers' comp services drive 65% of visit-related revenue in the core segment, a sticky employer-tied business that is not easily disrupted.

The problem is below the operating line. Net income was flat at $166M (-0.1% YoY) and diluted EPS actually fell -11.0% to $1.30, because interest expense more than doubled to $109M (5.1% of revenue vs. 2.5% in 2024) following the post-spin debt stack and the incremental $102M term loan + $50M revolver draw for Nova. Liabilities/equity sits at 6.20x and cash dropped -56.4% to just $79.9M, leaving thin liquidity against $337M of current liabilities. ROE of 42.3% looks great but is flattered by the levered capital structure — this is a debt-funded growth story now, not a self-funding compounder.