DNA

Ginkgo is a platform-services story whose numbers are moving the wrong way. Revenue has fallen for three straight years — $478M (FY2022) → $251M → $227M → $170M (FY2025, -25.1% YoY) — even as the MD&A touts an 'Autonomous Lab' that 'improves with scale.' A platform that supposedly compounds with volume is instead contracting, which undercuts the entire flywheel thesis. Management's own disclosure explains part of the shrinkage: in Q2 2024 it removed downstream value share from certain program types, trading ~100%-contribution-margin royalties/milestones for 'more predictable near-term revenue in up-front research fees.' That is a smaller, lower-optionality revenue base, and it is still declining.

The balance sheet is where 'avoid' becomes the only honest call. Cash fell 70.2% to $167M while operating cash flow burned -$171M in FY2025 — roughly one year of runway at the current pace. Yes, losses are narrowing hard (net loss -$313M, +42.8% YoY; OCF burn +46.5%; R&D -42.5%; capex -87.7%), but that improvement is being bought by shrinking the company: cutting R&D and capex is not compatible with reaccelerating a technology platform. Retained deficit sits at -$6.15B against $509M of equity, and shares already grew 7.1% — the setup points to more dilution (equity raise) to bridge the gap, at a depressed $605M market cap.