JOE

St. Joe is executing exceptionally well on its irreplaceable Northwest Florida landbank. FY2025 revenue grew 27.4% to $513M and net income jumped 55.9% to $116M, with operating margin expanding to 28.5% and operating cash flow surging 76.6% to $191M. The MD&A reveals the engine: residential real estate revenue rose 41.3% on a higher average price per homesite (~$137k vs $108k in 2024), commercial/forestry revenue more than tripled to $57.1M (boosted by the $41M Watercrest senior-living JV sale), and Watersound Club hospitality grew membership to 3,594 with The Third golf course and renovated Shark's Tooth clubhouse driving an 8.1% revenue gain. The balance sheet is improving — long-term debt down 10.6% to $391M, cash up 46% to $130M, and the company is returning capital aggressively ($40.3M buybacks, up ~12x YoY, plus $33.6M dividends).

Valuation is where the call gets harder. At $66.82, JOE trades at 33.6x FY2025 EPS and 7.5x sales — premium multiples that assume continued Florida population in-migration and lumpy commercial sales repeat. ROE of 15.1% is respectable but not extraordinary for a multiple this rich, and a meaningful chunk of FY2025's gross-profit pop came from one-off commercial sales (Watercrest) whose margins (56.6% segment) typically swing materially period-to-period — management explicitly warns commercial revenue 'can vary significantly from period-to-period.' Residential gross margin (49.4%) is also benefiting from community mix that may normalize.