MMI

Marcus & Millichap is a high-quality, asset-light commercial real estate brokerage caught in a deep transaction-volume cycle that is visibly inflecting upward. Revenue collapsed from ~$1.30B in 2021–22 to $646M in 2023 as deal flow froze, but has now recovered two straight years to $755M in FY2025 (+8.5% YoY), with transaction count rising to 8,818 (from 7,836) and sales volume to $50.8B (from $49.6B). The loss line tells the recovery story most clearly: net loss narrowed from -$34.0M (2023) to -$12.4M (2024) to just -$1.9M (2025), Adjusted EBITDA swung from -$19.6M to +$24.6M, and operating cash flow tripled to $66.7M. This is operating leverage turning back on as the brokerage model re-fills.

The balance sheet is the reason this is investable through the trough: $162M cash, liabilities/equity of just 0.37x, $603M of equity, and enough comfort to return capital — $20.6M in dividends and $25.4M of buybacks in FY2025 (repurchases up sharply YoY). Management funds operations from cash flow and a largely independent-contractor cost base (1,808 professionals) that flexes with volume, so the firm can absorb a prolonged downturn without balance-sheet stress. The MD&A's swing-factor — the Fed cutting the overnight rate three times in H2 2025 to 3.5–3.75% and the 10-year holding in the low-4% range — is exactly the rate-stability backdrop CRE transaction activity needs to thaw further.