Pulling SEC filings + quote and writing the call…

MACH NATURAL RESOURCES LP
Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 · consensus $0.33 EPS, $370M rev
Last earnings -1.6% on 2026-05-07
Cash-rich, low-decline E&P LP at a fair 11.5x, but debt-fueled growth diluted per-unit earnings and the distribution can go to zero.
Diluted EPS $1.09 · FY2025
Middling fundamentals and a rich price (~26% above fair value) leave little margin of safety — a wait-and-see.
MACH is an Anadarko/Permian/San Juan upstream LP running ~12,000 low-decline PDP wells plus integrated midstream (gathering, processing, water) that lets it 'optimize pricing, increase flow assurance and eliminate third-party costs.' That asset base throws off real cash: operating cash flow held at $507M (+0.3%) on $1.18B revenue (+21.2%), an OCF yield near 24% of the $2.11B market cap. At 11.5x EPS and 1.8x sales the units are not expensive for a cash-generative producer, which is what keeps this a hold rather than a sell.
But the quality of the headline growth is poor. The revenue jump and the +61.5% leap in total assets to $3.78B were bought, not earned: long-term debt rose 71.1% to $1.14B and the unit count rose 42.2% to 168M. The result is that per-unit economics went backwards even as the company got bigger — diluted EPS fell 42.6% to $1.09 and net income fell 22.8% to $143M, with operating income down 15.8% and net margin compressing to 12.2%. Cash on hand was nearly halved to $42.6M (-59.7%), and current assets ($378M) barely cover current liabilities ($360M), so liquidity now leans on the revolver and on commodity prices cooperating.
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 30, 2026, 12:32 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $392M | $937M | $762M | $970M | $1.18B |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $155M | $522M | $359M | $291M | $245M |
| Net income | $138M | $517M | $68.5M | $185M | $143M |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | $0.72 | $1.90 | $1.09 |
| Net margin | 35.3% | 55.1% | 9.0% | 19.1% | 12.2% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Other-events disclosure, likely quarterly distribution declaration/corporate update
Q1 2026 quarterly results filed (period ended 2026-03-31)
Q1 2026 quarterly results filed (period ended 2026-03-31)
Other-events disclosure (acquisition/financing update), no income impact signaled
Filed exhibits/financial statements only, likely acquired-asset financials
FY2025: rev +21% yet EPS -43%, LT debt +71%, units +42% (acquisition-driven dilution)
FY2025: rev +21% yet EPS -43%, LT debt +71%, units +42% (acquisition-driven dilution)
Officer/director change announced (Item 5.02)
Q3 2025 quarterly results filed
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001980088, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/30/2026, 4:32:36 AM.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.
Last 90 days: 2 open-market buys · 2 sales
| 2026-05-15 | IKAV General Partner S.a r.l. 10% owner | Disposed (J) | 1.42M @ $14.06 | $20.0M |
| 2026-04-13 | WARD TOM L. See Remarks | Buy | 76.6K @ $13.05 | $1000K |
| 2026-04-13 | WARD TOM L. See Remarks | Buy | 76.6K @ $13.05 | $1000K |
| 2026-04-08 | IKAV General Partner S.a r.l. 10% owner | Sell | 4.61M @ $12.81 | $59.1M |
| 2026-04-08 | IKAV General Partner S.a r.l. 10% owner | Sell | 945K @ $12.81 | $12.1M |
| 2026-04-08 | KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS LP Insider | Disposed (J) | 3.44M @ $12.81 | $44.1M |
| 2026-03-23 | McMullen William Wallace Director | Buy | 3.21K @ $13.63 | $43.8K |
| 2026-03-20 | Burn Christopher Director | Buy | 1.00K @ $13.85 | $13.8K |
| 2026-03-20 | McMullen William Wallace Director | Buy | 2.50K @ $14.00 | $35.0K |
| 2026-03-19 | Burn Christopher Director | Buy | 1.00K @ $14.07 | $14.1K |
| 2026-03-19 | McMullen William Wallace Director | Buy | 3.57K @ $14.00 | $50.0K |
| 2026-02-11 | WHITE KEVIN R. See Remarks | Tax | 5.63K @ $12.62 | $71.0K |
Source: EODHD. Yield = trailing-12-month dividends ÷ price.
Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.
1195 tracked peers · median
Recent news tone vs the market's typical (which skews positive). A soft signal, not a recommendation.