NEXT

NextDecade is not a business you can value on its income statement — it's a construction-stage developer that has booked $0.00 revenue in every year from FY2021 through FY2025 while burning more cash each year (operating cash flow -$169M in FY2025). The FY2025 net loss of -$430M (EPS -$1.17) is wider than the -$226M operating loss, meaning financing/derivative items below the operating line are doing much of the damage as the $8.51B long-term debt load (+117% YoY) carries the build. Almost all spend is being capitalized: capex hit $4.85B (+88.8%) and total assets nearly doubled to $12.4B. The entire equity thesis rests on the Rio Grande LNG Facility reaching cash flow — the MD&A guides to commissioning in 2026 and first LNG from Train 1 in H1 2027, with Trains 1–2 at 64.5% completion and Train 3 at 39.8%.

The balance sheet is the reason this is not a clean buy. Stockholders' equity has collapsed to $95.3M (-74.8%) against $10.1B of liabilities — a 106x liabilities/equity ratio — and current liabilities ($1.34B) exceed current assets ($718M), a working-capital deficit on just $144M of cash. The Risk Factors are explicit that this is the core danger: a covenant breach at the Rio Grande Project Entities or ND Finance Subsidiaries could trigger an event of default and foreclosure on the very equity interests that own NextDecade's stake in the project — i.e., a path to a near-total equity wipeout, not just a bad quarter. ROE of -450.6% is meaningless except as a flag that equity is a thin residual under a mountain of project debt.