NSSC
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC
Next earnings Aug 24, 2026 (before open) · consensus $0.40 EPS, $53.6M rev
Last earnings -15.2% on 2026-05-04
$37.79
▲ +1.34%$37.79▲ +29.38%
over 1Y
L $29.00H $46.87
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+1.3%
1W+1.0%
1M+4.8%
3M-4.8%
YTD-8.0%
1Y+29.4%
Hold
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 12 analysts
Buy
Fortress balance sheet and a high-margin recurring-revenue engine, but FY25 earnings fell and tariffs hit margins — quality at a full price.
Revenue $182M (YoY -3.8%) · FY2025
The read
Middling fundamentals and a rich price (~69% above fair value) leave little margin of safety — a wait-and-see.
NAPCO is a genuinely high-quality business trading at a full multiple during an earnings down-year. The balance sheet is a fortress: $83.1M cash (+27% YoY), liabilities/equity of just 0.18x, ROE of 25.7%, and $53.5M of operating cash flow (+18%) that funded $36.8M of buybacks and $13.6M of dividends. The strategic crown jewel is recurring service revenue (cellular alarm communications), which grew 14% to $86.3M at a 91.0% gross margin per the MD&A — this is what supports the 7.3x sales and 31.3x earnings multiples and is the durable reason to own the stock.
The problem is that the rest of the business is going backwards right now. FY25 total revenue fell 3.8% to $182M (the first decline after three years of strong growth from $114M in FY21 to $189M in FY24), net income dropped 12.9% to $43.4M, operating income fell 14.0%, and diluted EPS slipped 11.2% to $1.19. The MD&A pinpoints the culprit: equipment gross margin compressed from 29.4% to 23.6%, more than offsetting the RSR mix gains. So consolidated gross profit held flat (55.6% blended margin) only because the high-margin RSR is masking real weakness in the hardware franchise.
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 30, 2026, 6:30 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $114M | $144M | $170M | $189M | $182M |
| Gross profit | $50.7M | $59.2M | $73.2M | $102M | $101M |
| Operating income | $17.9M | $18.2M | $30.3M | $53.8M | $46.3M |
| Net income | $15.4M | $19.6M | $27.1M | $49.8M | $43.4M |
| Diluted EPS | $0.42 | $0.53 | $0.73 | $1.34 | $1.19 |
| Net margin | 13.5% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 26.4% | 23.9% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$1.27B
EV / EBITDA26.4
EV / Sales7.0
EV / FCF24.7
P / FCF26.3
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield3.2%
FCF yield3.8%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)21.2%
Free cash flow$51.4M
Total debt$3.90M
Net cash$79.2M
Altman Z-Score31.36 safe
Piotroski F-Score7/9
Capital returns
Buyback yield2.7%
Dividend yield (est.)1.0%
Shareholder yield3.7%
Shares Δ YoY-3.3%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRecent disclosure tone has been improving.
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-05
Q3 FY26 (Mar-2026) report; recurring revenue growth vs soft equipment sales
- 8-K Earnings results2026-05-04
Q3 FY26 results: recurring service revenue growth continues; margins and cash strong
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-02-02
Q2 FY26 (Dec-2025) report; RSR growth offsetting equipment softness
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-02-02
Q2 FY26 (Dec-2025) report; RSR growth offsetting equipment softness
- 8-K Shareholder vote2025-12-08
Annual meeting vote results: directors elected, routine proposals passed
- 8-K Earnings results2025-11-03
Q1 FY26 (Sep-2025) report; recurring service revenue keeps climbing
- 10-Q Quarterly report2025-11-03
Q1 FY26 (Sep-2025) report; recurring service revenue keeps climbing
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2025-10-24
DEF 14A proxy for 2025 annual meeting; board, pay and auditor up for vote
- 8-K Earnings results2025-08-25
FY25 10-K: revenue -4%, NI -13%; tariff risk on Dominican Republic output flagged
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗SDFiling2026-05-26open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-182026-05-20open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-05-07open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-05open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-302026-05-04open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-04-07open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-03-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-172026-03-19open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-022026-03-04open ↗144Filing2026-03-03open ↗144Filing2026-03-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-02-262026-02-27open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC (NSSC) a buy?
- NSSC currently carries a Hold rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Fortress balance sheet and a high-margin recurring-revenue engine, but FY25 earnings fell and tariffs hit margins — quality at a full price.
- What is NSSC's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on NSSC's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $11.68. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is NSSC overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, NSSC currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC's quality score?
- NSSC scores 63.9486638045227/100 (grade C+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000069633, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-05) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/30/2026, 10:30:27 AM.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.