OLN

Olin is in a clear cyclical trough, and the FY2025 numbers are ugly: revenue of $6.78B is down from a $9.38B peak in 2022, and the company swung to a net loss of -$101M from +$105M a year earlier (EPS -$0.88). Profitability has been gutted — gross margin compressed to 7.4% (gross profit -32% YoY) and operating income is essentially zero at $5.3M, so ROE is -5.5%. The MD&A confirms the weakness is broad, not one-off: Chlor Alkali segment income fell to $181.1M (lower EDC pricing, higher raw-material and turnaround costs), Epoxy posted a -$103.5M loss against 'continued market saturation from subsidized Asian competition,' and Winchester ammunition collapsed to $67.7M from $237.9M on lower commercial volumes and pricing. There is no segment currently inflecting upward.

The offsetting case is valuation and cash. At $20.82 the market cap is just $2.37B (P/S 0.3), and despite the GAAP loss the business still generated $474M of operating cash flow — roughly $248M of free cash after $226M capex — comfortably covering the $91.6M dividend. Management retains $1.9B of buyback authorization and bought back $50.5M of stock in 2025. So this is a cash-generative, asset-heavy cyclical priced for distress, not a melting ice cube. That combination keeps it out of 'sell/avoid' territory.