RDW

Redwire's FY2025 looks like growth on the surface — revenue +10.3% to $335M — but the engine underneath is sputtering. Gross profit fell 61% to $17.3M, crushing gross margin to 5.2% (from ~13% prior), and the company posted a -$230M operating loss and a -$227M net loss, roughly double FY2024's -$114M. Part of that is non-cash (D&A $32.6M, $47.7M of stock comp, and an inventory purchase-accounting fair-value step-up the MD&A flags), but the cash story is unambiguous: operating cash flow swung to -$177M from -$17M, driven by a $112M larger net loss and $74M more working-capital drain (a $34M deferred-revenue decline plus slower AR collection on billable milestones). That is a real, large cash outflow against just $94.5M of cash.

The balance sheet's apparent improvement is an acquisition artifact, not strengthening. The June 2025 Edge Autonomy (UAS) deal inflated total assets +395% to $1.45B and equity +662% to $1.06B, but it was funded by $397M of financing and a 154% increase in share count to 192M — brutal dilution that is the main reason the modest 10% revenue gain produced no per-share progress (EPS still -$2.28). The 0.29x liabilities/equity ratio flatters reality because equity is largely goodwill/intangibles from that deal; retained earnings sit at -$622M. Near term, the JPMorgan term loan carries an $83.25M balloon due 2027 — manageable only if the burn stops.