SOC

Sable is not a normal oil producer being valued on earnings — it is a single-asset restart story whose financials carry an explicit going-concern qualification. The auditor states that uncertainties around remaining regulatory approvals, additional financing, and refinancing the Senior Secured Term Loan 'raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern.' That sentence overrides any multiple-based view: management itself says in the MD&A that 'the Company currently has no operating revenues' and 'does not currently generate cash flows to service or refinance its debt.' FY2025 confirms it — $0.00 revenue, a -$410M net loss, -$352M operating cash flow, and $418M of capex, all funded by external capital rather than the business.

The balance sheet is the acute problem. The company ended FY2025 with $921.6M of short-term debt (current portion, inclusive of paid-in-kind interest) against just $97.7M of cash, and current liabilities of $1.02B versus only $136M of current assets — a working-capital hole that can only be filled by oil sales, refinancing, or yet more equity. The Second Amendment pushed the term-loan maturity to the earlier of March 31, 2027 or 90 days after first hydrocarbon sales, but raised the rate from 10% to 15% compounded — a lender pricing real distress, with the clock effectively forcing a sale event soon. Reported stockholders' equity of $534M sits on top of a -$1.11B accumulated deficit and was only positive because of dilutive raises, not retained value.