SPNT

SiriusPoint is a credible insurance turnaround that is executing. FY2025 revenue grew 23.1% to $3.21B and net income more than doubled to $460M, lifting ROE to 18.6% and net margin to 14.3% — a sharp reversal from the -$387M loss in FY2022 and the mediocre $200M in FY2024. Equity grew 27.5% to $2.47B even while management repurchased $491M of stock, cutting the share count by a striking 27.9%. At $23.97 the stock trades at roughly 1.14x the ~$21 book value per share and 0.9x sales, with no dividend but an aggressive buyback doing the capital-return work — accretive when bought near book. The 4.09x liabilities/equity is normal leverage for a P&C reinsurer, cash of $731M roughly matches the $689M of long-term debt, and retained earnings swung up 56.5% to $1.23B.

The key caveat — and why this is a moderate-conviction buy rather than a slam dunk — is earnings quality. The 10-K discloses a $222.4M gain from deconsolidating Armada (sold to Ambac for $250M, closed Oct 31, 2025), which represents roughly half of the $460M net income. Strip that one-timer and normalized earnings are closer to ~$2.0/share, putting the real multiple near ~12x rather than the headline 6.6x — fair, not cheap. Operating cash flow of just $102M against $460M of reported net income corroborates that much of the year's profit is non-cash, gain-driven rather than recurring underwriting cash. Another ~$25M Arcadian gain lands in Q1 2026, further flattering near-term optics.