TSLA

The fundamentals are moving the wrong way. FY2025 revenue fell 2.9% to $94.8B — the first annual decline in over a decade and a reversal from the $53.8B→$96.8B ramp of 2021-2023 — while net income collapsed 46.5% to $3.79B and diluted EPS dropped 47.1% to $1.08. Margins are thin and compressing across the stack: gross 18.0%, operating 4.6% (down 38.5% in absolute dollars), net 4.0%, and ROE of just 4.6%. This is no longer a hypergrowth story on the reported numbers; it is a maturing, tariff-exposed auto manufacturer with deteriorating profitability. Management's own MD&A concedes revenue fell $2.86B and net income $3.30B year-over-year, and flags that the 2025 tariff regime 'will have a relatively larger impact on our energy generation and storage business' with 'meaningfully adverse impact on demand for our products and our profitability.'

The balance sheet is genuinely strong and is the main thing keeping this out of 'avoid': $44.06B cash and investments (up $7.5B), only ~$8.2B total debt against $82.1B equity (liabilities/equity 0.67x), $14.7B of operating cash flow, and capex cut 24.8% to $8.53B. The business 'generally funds itself.' But note the 16.7% jump in shares outstanding — dilution is doing real work here and depresses per-share value even as the equity base grows.