WCN

Waste Connections is exactly the durable, recession-resistant franchise the 10-K describes: an integrated, vertically positioned operator in 'mostly exclusive and secondary markets across 46 states' that competes on price and asset position rather than volume. The 2025 numbers confirm the model is working — revenue rose 6.1% to $9.47B with the MD&A attributing solid-waste pricing growth of 6.4% (core pricing +6.5%) that more than absorbed a deliberate 2.8% volume decline. That 'intentional' shedding of low-margin volume is a feature, not a bug, and it shows up in the P&L: operating income jumped 60.2% to $1.71B and operating margin reached 18.1%, while operating cash flow of $2.41B against $1.18B of capex throws off roughly $1.2B of free cash that funded $506M of buybacks and $334M of dividends.

The headline to treat with care is the 74% net-income surge to $1.08B. The five-year history shows net income was depressed in 2024 ($618M, down from $763M in 2023), so a large part of 2025's 'doubling' is a recovery off a weak base rather than a step-change in underlying earnings power — revenue itself grew a steady, unspectacular 6%. ROE of 13.1% is solid but not extraordinary given liabilities of 1.56x equity and just $46M of cash on the balance sheet (down 26%); this is a company that runs lean on cash and leans on its credit facility and FCF, as the MD&A's emphasis on 'free cash flow to reduce leverage' makes explicit.