XPO
XPO, Inc.
Next earnings Jul 29, 2026 · consensus $1.48 EPS, $2.30B rev
Last earnings +1.6% on 2026-04-30
$206.33
▲ +0.09%$206.33▲ +61.85%
over 1Y
L $118.79H $228.37
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+0.1%
1W+1.6%
1M-4.9%
3M+2.9%
YTD+48.7%
1Y+61.9%
Sell
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 28 analysts
Buy
Decent franchise, recessionary freight backdrop, but a 75x P/E on falling earnings leaves no margin of safety.
P/E 75.6 · FY2025
The read
Weak on both the fundamentals and the price — little to like at the current level.
XPO is a leading North American LTL and European transportation carrier, and operationally the business is holding up better than the headline earnings suggest: FY2025 operating income was essentially flat at $656M (8.0% of revenue vs 8.2%) and operating cash flow grew 22% to $986M. Revenue rose just 1.1% to $8.16B, and management notes that ~1.4 points of that came from FX, so revenue was effectively flat ex-currency. Returns on equity remain respectable at 17%. The problem is below the operating line: net income fell 18.3% to $316M and diluted EPS dropped to $2.64, as the income tax provision rose to $121M from $86M and the company absorbed higher restructuring ($59M) and a $35M Pre-Con-way environmental charge. Margins are being squeezed by wage inflation and the insourcing of linehaul (salaries/wages rose to 42.0% of revenue).
The valuation is the crux of the call. At $199.50 the stock trades at 75.6x trailing diluted EPS and 2.9x sales — pricing in a robust earnings recovery that is not yet visible. Management is explicit in the MD&A that 'the overall freight environment continues to be recessionary' and cites elevated interest rates, inflation in salaries, fuel and insurance, and tariff uncertainty dampening end-market demand. Net income has been highly cyclical ($666M in 2022, $189M in 2023, $387M in 2024, $316M in 2025), underscoring that the current multiple capitalizes a trough on hope of a rebound rather than on delivered results.
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.20B | $7.72B | $7.74B | $8.07B | $8.16B |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $312M | $377M | $438M | $660M | $656M |
| Net income | $336M | $666M | $189M | $387M | $316M |
| Diluted EPS | $2.93 | $5.76 | $1.60 | $3.23 | $2.64 |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$27.5B
EV / EBITDA24.5
EV / Sales3.4
EV / FCF83.7
P / FCF73.6
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield1.3%
FCF yield1.4%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)9.5%
Free cash flow$329M
Total debt$3.62B
Net cash-$3.31B
Piotroski F-Score6/9
Capital returns
Buyback yield0.5%
Dividend yield (est.)0.0%
Shareholder yield0.5%
Shares Δ YoY-0.1%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsSome governance/structural items recently, but no outright red flags.
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-06-04open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-032026-06-03open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-292026-06-01open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-282026-05-29open ↗144Filing2026-05-28open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-202026-05-26open ↗SDFiling2026-05-21open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-192026-05-19open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-14open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-14open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-06open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-04-30open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is XPO, Inc. (XPO) a buy?
- XPO currently carries a Sell rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Decent franchise, recessionary freight backdrop, but a 75x P/E on falling earnings leaves no margin of safety.
- What is XPO's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on XPO's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $21.32. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is XPO overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, XPO currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is XPO, Inc.'s quality score?
- XPO scores 59.20194382520501/100 (grade C) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001166003, latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-30) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 7:08:45 PM.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.