ADCT

ADCT is a one-product commercial-stage biotech riding entirely on ZYNLONTA, a CD19 ADC that carries only FDA *accelerated* approval in 3rd-line+ DLBCL. That approval is contingent on the LOTIS-5 confirmatory Phase 3 succeeding — a genuinely binary event that could pull the drug's only U.S. label if it reads out negative. With revenue of just $81.4M (FY2025, +14.9%) resting on a single molecule, the entire equity is a bet on that one trial and on pushing into earlier lines and indolent lymphomas. The MD&A confirms the base is thin: product revenue grew only 6.2% to $73.6M and was driven by *price*, not volume ('consistent sales volume'), while the headline 14.9% growth leaned on a lumpy $6.2M jump in Sobi license revenue including a one-time $5.0M milestone recognized in March 2025 — not durable, recurring growth.

The balance sheet is where this crosses from risky to uninvestable for a retail holder. Stockholders' equity is *negative* $186M, with $509M of liabilities against $323M of assets and a $1.64B accumulated deficit. Interest expense alone was $51.6M in FY2025 — larger than product cost of sales, S&M, or the entire product-revenue gross profit — a crushing fixed charge from the loan agreement (which also blocks dividends). Operating cash flow was -$141M against $261M of cash, implying under two years of runway before another raise. Management already responded in June 2025 with the '2025 Restructuring': closing the UK facility and cutting ~30% of the global workforce to focus resources on ZYNLONTA — a defensive move that narrowed the operating loss modestly (to -$121M) but does not fix the structural math.