AGO
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD
Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 · consensus $1.54 EPS, $203M rev
Last earnings +0.5% on 2026-05-07
$83.67
▲ +4.34%$83.67▼ -2.25%
over 1Y
L $73.20H $91.32
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+4.3%
1W+8.4%
1M+13.3%
3M+3.7%
YTD-4.8%
1Y-2.3%
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 8 analysts
Buy
Cheap, well-capitalized financial guarantor compounding book value via aggressive buybacks at 7.6x earnings — buy.
P/E (trailing) 7.6x · FY2025
The read
Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~366% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.
Assured Guaranty is a niche financial guaranty insurer trading at just 7.6x trailing diluted EPS of $10.26 with a fortress balance sheet — $5.66B of equity supporting only $1.70B of long-term debt (liabilities/equity 1.13x), and AA-rated insurance subsidiaries (AG, AGRO, AGUK, AGE) confirmed stable by S&P, KBRA, Moody's and AM Best per the MD&A. Net income grew 33.8% YoY to $503M and diluted EPS jumped 49.3% to $10.26, the latter outpacing earnings because management repurchased $500M of stock and shrank the share count 10.3% in a single year — a textbook capital-return story for a mature insurer with limited reinvestment runway in its core book.
The filing narrative reinforces quality. The Lehman counterclaim was finally monetized as a $103M realized gain in Q1 2025, and the company's largest BIG (below-investment-grade) loss-mitigation exposure — $408M carrying value — was resolved in July 2025 for $459M cash, validating the reserve discipline and removing a tail risk. Cash on the balance sheet more than tripled to $419M and operating cash flow surged to $259M (+451% YoY), giving ample dry powder for continued buybacks and the Assured Life Re build-out.
Is AGO a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
The options angle
model · matches our verdictBull call spread (wide)~90d expiry
- Long call 84 @ ~4.28 est
- Short call 96 @ ~0.80 est
debit $348max +$852max −$348BE 87.48
High-conviction BUY: a wider spread keeps more of the upside while the short call still cuts cost and decay.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $88.0M | $93.0M | $53.0M | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $389M | $124M | $739M | $376M | $503M |
| Diluted EPS | $5.23 | $1.92 | $12.30 | $6.87 | $10.26 |
| Net margin | 442.0% | 133.3% | 1394.3% | — | — |
10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value—
EV / EBITDA—
EV / Sales—
EV / FCF—
P / FCF—
PEG (trailing)0.24
Earnings yield13.6%
FCF yield—
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)—
Free cash flow—
Total debt$1.70B
Net cash-$1.28B
Piotroski F-Score5/7
Capital returns
Buyback yield13.5%
Dividend yield (est.)1.8%
Shareholder yield15.3%
Shares Δ YoY-10.3%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRecent disclosure tone has been improving.
- 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-05-08
Q1 2026 10-Q filed; continues post-FY25 momentum with strong capital return
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-08
Q1 2026 10-Q filed; continues post-FY25 momentum with strong capital return
- 8-K Earnings results2026-05-07
Q1 2026 earnings release furnished with financials exhibit
- 8-K Shareholder vote2026-05-05
Annual shareholder meeting vote results disclosed
- 8-K Earnings results2026-03-23
Financial results/update furnished (Item 2.02) with exhibit
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-03-19
Officer/director change (Item 5.02) — leadership transition disclosed
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-03-18
2026 proxy: routine board/comp votes ahead of annual meeting
- 8-K Earnings results2026-02-27
FY25 10-K: $503M NI, $500M buybacks, shares -10%, Assured Life Re entry
- 10-K Annual report2026-02-27
FY25 10-K: $503M NI, $500M buybacks, shares -10%, Assured Life Re entry
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗144Filing2026-06-23open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-06-18open ↗3Period ending 2026-06-122026-06-18open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-172026-06-18open ↗144Filing2026-06-17open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-292026-06-01open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-282026-05-29open ↗144Filing2026-05-29open ↗S-3ASRFiling2026-05-28open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-212026-05-22open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-112026-05-12open ↗144Filing2026-05-11open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) a buy?
- AGO currently carries a Buy rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Cheap, well-capitalized financial guarantor compounding book value via aggressive buybacks at 7.6x earnings — buy.
- What is AGO's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on AGO's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $389.88. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is AGO overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, AGO currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is ASSURED GUARANTY LTD's quality score?
- AGO scores 79.96867669098783/100 (grade B+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001273813, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-08) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 1:33:13 PM.
About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 9:33 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.