ATOM

Atomera is not a company you value on fundamentals — it's a binary bet on whether its MST thin-film silicon technology ever gets adopted at commercial scale, and the data says that bet just got worse. FY2025 revenue was $65.0K, down 51.9% YoY, against a $20.2M net loss. That is functionally zero commercial traction after a decade-plus of R&D: the five-year revenue history ($400K → $382K → $550K → $135K → $65K) is going the wrong direction while losses widen. Gross profit is negative (-$256K), so even the trivial revenue it books costs more to deliver than it earns. The $287M market cap against this puts P/S at 4,411x — a valuation that only makes sense if you assume a large, near-term licensing inflection, and the filing actively undercuts that assumption.

The decisive item is in the Risk Factors: in October 2025, ST Microelectronics — the customer that executed a commercial license in April 2023 and represented the most advanced relationship — told Atomera it 'would not complete the qualification of MST into their process' after migrating to 300mm wafers, and management concedes 'there can be no assurance whether or when ST will re-commence.' Both JDAs are explicitly non-committal ('Neither of our JDAs commits the customers to take MST to production'), and the ST arrangement is 'currently on hold.' So the single closest path to royalty revenue stalled, and there is no disclosed replacement at the same stage. This is the definition of unknowable risk: commercialization depends entirely on third-party foundries/IDMs making decisions Atomera does not control, on no stated timeline.