BIRD

This is not a stock to value on multiples — it is an equity stub in a company that has already agreed to liquidate its operating business. The 10-K states outright that Allbirds' board ran a strategic-alternatives process that 'culminated in the Company entering into a definitive agreement during the first quarter of 2026 with an affiliate of American Exchange Group to sell substantially all of the assets of the Company.' Management separately discloses that recent performance — a $77.3M net loss and $55.1M of operating cash burn in FY2025 — 'has raised substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern.' When substantially all assets are sold, common holders are last in line behind $73.5M of liabilities (including the Second Avenue / amended Credit Agreement); what, if anything, is left to distribute after transaction costs, lease terminations, restructuring and debt repayment is genuinely unknowable from the data provided. That is the definition of an avoid: the outcome is a legal/negotiated waterfall, not a business.

The fundamentals corroborate that the operating brand was failing, not merely cheap. Revenue has fallen every year since the FY2022 peak — $298M → $254M → $190M → $152M — a 49% decline in three years, with FY2025 down another 19.7%. Gross profit fell faster than revenue (-22.8%), so margin is eroding (41.0% vs 42.7% prior year) even as the top line shrinks. Operating margin is -52.4%, ROE is -215%, and the accumulated deficit sits at -$562M. The narrowing net loss (-$77.3M vs -$93.3M) reflects store closures (10 in 2025, remaining US full-price stores closed in Q1 2026) and a reduction in force — shrinking-to-survive, not a turnaround. Cash fell 60% to $26.7M against $55M annual burn, which is precisely why the company had to sign an ATM sales agreement (up to $50M, constrained by the S-3 baby-shelf limit) and ultimately sell itself.