CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 (after close) · consensus $5.63 EPS, $2.48B rev
Last earnings -6.5% on 2026-05-06
$110.54
▲ +4.88%$110.54▲ +24.09%
over 1Y
L $75.38H $137.04
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+4.9%
1W+4.8%
1M-2.6%
3M-14.6%
YTD+39.3%
1Y+24.1%
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 30 analysts
Hold
Low-cost nitrogen producer earning $8.97 at 11.5x P/E with 37% ROE and heavy buybacks — cheap, but it's a commodity cyclical near a strong point.
Diluted EPS (FY2025) $8.97 · FY2025
The read
Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~208% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.
CF Industries is a low-cost North American nitrogen-fertilizer producer enjoying a favorable point in the cycle. FY2025 revenue rose 19.3% to $7.08B, net income grew 21.7% to $1.80B, and diluted EPS jumped 33.1% to $8.97 — the per-share growth amplified by a 9.4% reduction in shares from buybacks. Profitability is exceptional: 32.5% operating margin, 25.4% net margin and a 37.2% return on equity. The MD&A attributes the strength to an 11% rise in ammonia selling prices ($473/ton) and a 22% rise in granular urea prices ($433/ton), driven by 'strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, including unexpected production outages in Egypt, Iran and Russia.'
The stock looks inexpensive at 11.5x earnings and 2.2x sales, and capital return is aggressive and disciplined: $1.36B of buybacks plus $326M of dividends in FY2025, with the Board authorizing a fresh $2B repurchase program (the 2025 program) running through 2029 on top of the prior $3B authorization. Operating cash flow of $2.75B (+21.2%) comfortably funds both the returns and an $950M capex program (up 83.4% as the company invests in growth/clean-ammonia capacity).
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 4:43 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.54B | $11.2B | $6.63B | $5.94B | $7.08B |
| Gross profit | $2.39B | $5.86B | $2.54B | $2.06B | $2.72B |
| Operating income | $1.73B | $5.40B | $2.23B | $1.75B | $2.30B |
| Net income | $1.26B | $3.94B | $1.84B | $1.48B | $1.80B |
| Diluted EPS | $4.24 | $16.38 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 |
| Net margin | 19.3% | 35.2% | 27.7% | 24.9% | 25.4% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$18.2B
EV / EBITDA5.7
EV / Sales2.6
EV / FCF10.1
P / FCF9.4
PEG (trailing)0.57
Earnings yield10.6%
FCF yield10.6%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)22.6%
Free cash flow$1.80B
Total debt$3.21B
Net cash-$1.23B
Piotroski F-Score8/9
Capital returns
Buyback yield8.0%
Dividend yield (est.)1.9%
Shareholder yield10.0%
Shares Δ YoY-9.4%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsSome governance/structural items recently, but no outright red flags.
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗4Period ending 2026-05-262026-05-28open ↗3Period ending 2026-05-262026-05-28open ↗144Filing2026-05-22open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-07open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-062026-05-06open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-062026-05-06open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-052026-05-05open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-282026-05-04open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-282026-04-30open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-282026-04-30open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-282026-04-30open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-282026-04-30open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) a buy?
- CF currently carries a Buy rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Low-cost nitrogen producer earning $8.97 at 11.5x P/E with 37% ROE and heavy buybacks — cheap, but it's a commodity cyclical near a strong point.
- What is CF's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on CF's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $340.86. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is CF overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, CF currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s quality score?
- CF scores 81.96899540230862/100 (grade A-) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001324404, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 8:43:30 PM.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.