NEM

On the numbers, Newmont is firing on all cylinders. FY2025 revenue rose 21.3% to $22.7B, net income more than doubled (+111.6%) to $7.08B, and diluted EPS hit $6.39 — driving a 31.3% net margin and 20.9% ROE that are exceptional for a miner. The balance sheet is a fortress: $7.65B cash (+111.3%) now exceeds $5.12B long-term debt (down 32.3%) for a net-cash position, the current portion of debt was taken to $0, and liabilities/equity sits at just 0.68x. Operating cash flow of $10.3B against $3.04B capex implies roughly $7.3B free cash flow, which funded $2.30B of buybacks (shares -3.5%) and $1.11B of dividends. Crucially, adjusted EBITDA of $13.48B vs $8.68B a year ago confirms the operating improvement is real, not purely accounting.

The catch is durability. This is a cyclical gold miner printing at a cyclical high. The revenue/income history is a warning: net loss of -$429M in FY2022 and -$2.49B in FY2023 (impairment-driven) show this franchise can swing to losses when gold and write-downs turn against it. The EPS doubling far outran the 21% revenue gain, meaning it is largely gold-price-driven margin expansion plus a ~$1,066M one-time gain on non-core asset sales (per the EBITDA reconciliation) and a multi-asset divestiture program — not durable organic growth. The 16.2x P/E looks cheap, but it rests on peak earnings; on normalized margins the multiple is richer, and 5.0x sales is full for a commodity producer. FY2025 still carried $842M of impairment charges, a reminder that write-down risk never fully leaves this asset base.