CRCT

Cricut is no longer a growth story — revenue collapsed from $1.31B in FY2021 to $709M in FY2025 as the post-COVID DIY-crafting boom unwound, and Active Users have been pinned at "nearly 5.9 million" for three straight years (2023, 2024, 2025). But the decline has clearly bottomed: the YoY revenue change has compressed from -14% (2023) to -7% (2024) to just -1% (2025), and the mix is shifting toward higher-margin, recurring revenue — online is now 69% of sales (up from 62% in 2023) and there are 3.09M paid Cricut Access subscribers at $95.88–$119.88/yr. That mix shift is doing real work: on a flat top line, gross profit rose +10.7%, operating income +26.2%, and net income +22.1% to $76.7M, lifting gross margin to 55.1% and ROE to 22.3%.

The valuation prices in continued decline that the numbers no longer show. At $4.44 the stock trades at 12.7x diluted EPS and 1.3x sales, but $256M of cash (with liabilities/equity of just 0.69x and no meaningful debt) is ~27% of the $938M market cap — so the operating business is closer to 9x earnings. Capital return is the swing factor: the company paid $202M in dividends (+83.8%) and bought back $24.7M of stock in FY2025, returning more than its entire net income. The equity base shrank 26.4% and total assets fell 16.2% as a result — management is deliberately liquidating excess capital back to holders rather than chasing growth, which is the right call for a cash-rich, low-growth franchise and a direct support under the share price.