EGBN

Eagle Bancorp's fundamentals are deteriorating, not stabilizing. FY2025 net income of -$138M is nearly triple the FY2024 loss of -$47M, taking diluted EPS to -$4.55 and ROE to -12.2%. Operating cash flow collapsed 77% to $28.5M, total assets shrank 5.7% to $10.5B, and stockholders' equity fell 7.7% to $1.13B — every line that matters for a bank is moving the wrong way. Management's response — cutting dividends paid by 66% to $15.3M and zero buybacks — confirms the franchise is on defense, not offense.

The 10-K's rate-risk table reframes the setup: as of December 31, 2025, the bank now shows a 2.4% decline in 12-month NII under a -100bp shock (vs. a +0.9% gain under the same scenario a year earlier), and a 5.6% decline at -200bp. After two years of losses, the income statement is now positioned to LOSE money if the Fed cuts — an awkward stance heading into any easing cycle. Management attributes the flip to 'modeling enhancements and balance sheet composition changes,' which itself is a tell: model assumptions changed materially between Q3 and Q4 2025.