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Research & education only — not financial advice.TENK is not a registered investment adviser; calls are impersonal, generated from SEC filings and a delayed/third-party price feed, and may be wrong or out of date. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates — see Disclosures. Do your own research.

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Home›Stocks›LOPE
LOPE logo

LOPE

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Next earnings Aug 4, 2026 · consensus $1.71 EPS, $267M rev

Last earnings -0.1% on 2026-04-30

Buy
$152.65
▲ +7.69%
$152.65▼ -19.42%
over 1Y
L $141.59H $220.55
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+7.7%
1W+6.7%
1M+0.4%
3M-10.9%
YTD-7.7%
1Y-19.4%
OverviewFinancialsValuationQualityTimelineFilings
Rating
Buy
Quality
B-
Valuation
Overvalued
Filings
Clean
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 8 analysts
Buy

Quiet compounder: 7% revenue growth, 29% ROE, aggressive buybacks at a reasonable 18.8x P/E — quality at a fair price.

Revenue $1.11B · FY2025

The read

The fundamentals carry the rating, but the price is rich (~39% above our fair-value estimate) — a quality-at-a-price call. The case rests on the business, not the entry; patient buyers may wait for a pullback.

LOPE is a high-quality, capital-light services business hiding behind a complex GCU relationship. FY2025 delivered $1.11B revenue (+7.1%) on the back of 7.1% partner enrollment growth to 136,239 students, with GCU online enrollments — the core engine — up 8.7% to 107,148. Operating margins held at 24.0% and ROE printed 28.9% on a near-debt-free balance sheet (liabilities/equity 0.33x). Net income dipped 4.4% to $216M, but the MD&A reveals a benign explanation: contract modifications reduced revenue share in exchange for shedding faculty cost reimbursements (margin-neutral to slightly accretive long-term), plus the 2024 leap-day comp ($1.5M) and a slight mix shift to lower-tuition online students. Underlying unit economics remain intact.

Capital allocation is the standout. The company bought back $265M of stock in FY2025 (+52.9% YoY) — roughly 6.7% of the current $3.93B market cap in a single year — shrinking the share count 5.5% to 27.1M. Diluted EPS held essentially flat (-0.3%) despite the net income decline, evidence the buyback is doing real work. Operating cash flow of $273M against just $34.8M capex yields ~$238M of free cash flow, comfortably funding the repurchase program. Cash fell 65.6% to $112M precisely because management is choosing aggressive repurchases over a hoarded balance sheet — a shareholder-friendly choice at 18.8x earnings.

Is LOPE a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →

The options angle

model · matches our verdict
Bull call spread (wide)~90d expiry
  • Long call 153 @ ~10.36 est
  • Short call 176 @ ~3.02 est
debit $734max +$1,566max −$734BE 160.34

High-conviction BUY: a wider spread keeps more of the upside while the short call still cuts cost and decay.

Open in the calculator →

Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.

Financials · annual, by fiscal year

Line itemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue$897M$911M$961M$1.03B$1.11B
Gross profit—————
Operating income$282M$238M$249M$275M$266M
Net income$260M$185M$205M$226M$216M
Diluted EPS$5.92$5.73$6.80$7.73$7.71
Net margin29.0%20.3%21.3%21.9%19.5%

10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →

Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.

Key statistics

Valuation

Enterprise value$4.04B
EV / EBITDA13.6
EV / Sales3.7
EV / FCF16.9
P / FCF17.0
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield5.3%
FCF yield5.9%

Quality & risk

ROIC (est.)24.6%
Free cash flow$239M
Total debt$108M
Net cash$3.99M
Altman Z-Score16.04 safe
Piotroski F-Score6/8

Capital returns

Buyback yield6.5%
Dividend yield (est.)—
Shareholder yield6.5%
Shares Δ YoY-5.5%

Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.

Disclosure timeline

SEC · 8-Ks + reports
Recent disclosure tone has been improving.
  1. 8-K Officer / director change2026-06-25
  2. 8-K Shareholder vote2026-06-10

    Annual meeting results: directors elected and auditor ratified

  3. 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-06-03

    Reg FD disclosure, likely investor conference or presentation update

  4. 8-K Earnings results2026-04-30

    Q1 2026 10-Q showing continued GCU partner-enrollment growth

  5. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-04-30

    Q1 2026 10-Q showing continued GCU partner-enrollment growth

  6. DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-04-23

    2026 proxy: routine board, comp and auditor votes for annual meeting

  7. 8-K Earnings results2026-02-18

    FY25 10-K: enrollments +7.1% to 136,239; NI dipped 4.4% on cost growth

  8. 10-K Annual report2026-02-18

    FY25 10-K: enrollments +7.1% to 136,239; NI dipped 4.4% on cost growth

  9. 8-K Officer / director change2026-02-12

    Disclosed officer or director change (Item 5.02 governance event)

Recent filings

all on EDGAR ↗
8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-222026-06-25open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-102026-06-11open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-102026-06-11open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-102026-06-11open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-102026-06-11open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-102026-06-11open ↗S-8 POSFiling2026-06-10open ↗S-8Filing2026-06-10open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-102026-06-10open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-022026-06-03open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-052026-05-07open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-052026-05-07open ↗

Quality score

B-
ValueGrowthProfitHealthMom.
ValueB
GrowthC-
ProfitabilityA
Financial healthA-
MomentumF
  • ✓Revenue growing year-over-year
  • ✓Profitable (positive net income)
  • ✓Net margin above 10%
  • ✓Return on equity above 15%
  • ✓Liabilities below 2× equity
  • ✓P/E below 25

Fair value est.

$93.22

Overvalued -39% vs price

cheapfair valueexpensive

Modified Graham: EPS $7.71 × (8.5 + 1.5 × 1.3% growth) × 1.16 quality = 12.1× multiple. An estimate, not a price target.

141.5952-week220.55
Revenue
$1.11B
+7.1% YoY
Net margin
19.5%
ROE
28.9%
P/E
19.8

SEC fundamentals · FY 2025

'21'22'23'24'25

■ revenue · ■ net income, by fiscal year

Revenue$1.11B+7.1%
Net income$216M-4.4%
Operating income$266M-3.4%
Diluted EPS$7.71-0.3%
Cash & equivalents$112M-65.6%
Total assets$992M-2.6%
Total liabilities$245M+4.6%
Stockholders' equity$747M-4.7%
Op.: 24.0%L/E: 0.33x

Frequently asked

Is Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) a buy?
LOPE currently carries a Buy rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Quiet compounder: 7% revenue growth, 29% ROE, aggressive buybacks at a reasonable 18.8x P/E — quality at a fair price.
What is LOPE's fair value?
A Modified-Graham model based on LOPE's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $93.22. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
Is LOPE overvalued or undervalued?
Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, LOPE currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
What is Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s quality score?
LOPE scores 69.87418383429022/100 (grade B-) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001434588, latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-30) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 1:15:37 PM.

›About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice

AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.

Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 9:15 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.

Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.

Insider activity

Form 4 · SEC
2026-06-10
Warren Kevin F.
Director
Award498.00
2026-06-10
Humphrey Chevy
Director
Award498.00
2026-06-10
Keegan Lisa Graham
Director
Award498.00
2026-06-10
HENRY JACK A
Director
Award498.00
2026-06-10
Ward Sara
Director
Award498.00
2026-05-05
BACHUS DANIEL E
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Gift770.00
2026-05-05
Meyer William Stan
CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
Gift500.00
2026-05-05
MUELLER BRIAN E
CEO
Gift300.00

Held by tracked funds

Form 13F · SEC · quarterly
Renaissance Technologies215K sh$36.6M

As of each fund’s latest quarterly 13F — a delayed snapshot, not a live position. All tracked funds →

Earnings history

beat/miss · move
2026-04-30Beat +0.9% est▲ +0.56%8-K ↗
2026-02-18Miss -1.5% est▲ +0.03%8-K ↗
2025-11-05Miss -2.0% est▼ -11.79%8-K ↗
2025-08-06Beat +9.0% est▲ +15.45%8-K ↗
2025-05-06—▲ +5.19%8-K ↗
2025-02-19—▼ -0.68%8-K ↗

Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.

Congressional trades

all activity →

Disclosed under the STOCK Act

2024-06-08Josh GottheimerBuy$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2024-02-15Josh GottheimerSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2024-01-07Josh GottheimerSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2021-08-09Josh GottheimerSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2019-12-31Greg GianforteBuy$100K–$250KPTR ↗
2018-06-15Greg GianforteSell$100K–$250KPTR ↗
2017-07-19Greg GianforteSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗

Self-reported periodic transaction reports (STOCK Act). Amounts are disclosed ranges; a trade may be a spouse's. Disclosures lag the trade by up to ~45 days. Source: House Clerk + Senate eFD.

Vs tracked universe

compare →

1195 tracked peers · median

TENK Score70 vs 67
Revenue growth7.1% vs 7.5%
Net margin19.5% vs 10.0%
Return on equity28.9% vs 12.0%
P/E19.8 vs 26.2