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Research & education only — not financial advice.TENK is not a registered investment adviser; calls are impersonal, generated from SEC filings and a delayed/third-party price feed, and may be wrong or out of date. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates — see Disclosures. Do your own research.

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Home›Stocks›MWA
MWA logo

MWA

Mueller Water Products, Inc.

Next earnings Aug 3, 2026 (after close) · consensus $0.40 EPS, $395M rev

Last earnings +1.2% on 2026-05-05

Buy
$24.97
▼ -4.33%
$24.97▲ +4.97%
over 1Y
L $22.80H $30.29
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-4.3%
1W-7.4%
1M-0.4%
3M-9.5%
YTD+4.8%
1Y+5.0%
OverviewFinancialsValuationQualityTimelineFilings
Rating
Buy
Quality
B
Valuation
Undervalued
Filings
Clean
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 9 analysts
Buy

MWA's municipal water moat is delivering accelerating earnings, a fortress balance sheet, and a reasonable 21.5x P/E — buy.

Revenue $1.43B · FY2025

The read

Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~86% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.

Mueller Water Products is a high-quality infrastructure compounder hitting an inflection. FY2025 revenue grew 8.7% to $1.43B but net income surged 65.4% to $192M and diluted EPS jumped 64.9% to $1.22, evidence of real operating leverage as the brass foundry transition and prior cost actions land. Operating margin expanded to 18.2% (operating income +43.4%) and ROE reached 19.5% — best-in-class for a 'Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products' name. The five-year arc (revenue $1.11B→$1.43B, net income $70M→$192M) confirms this is structural, not a one-off.

The balance sheet is a fortress and supports the rating. Cash grew 39.2% to $432M against $450M of long-term debt and just $1.2M current portion — effectively net-zero leverage with L/E of 0.87x. Operating cash flow of $219M against $47M capex leaves ~$172M of free cash flow funding a growing dividend ($41.9M paid) and modest buybacks ($15M). The MD&A confirms a strategic reason to keep investing: management is expanding foundry capacity to capitalize on rising demand for domestic product 'given the uncertainty in the current geopolitical and tariff environment' — i.e., tariffs that hurt the Israel-made Repair/Specialty Valve lines become a tailwind for the US-foundry footprint over time.

Is MWA a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →

The options angle

model · matches our verdict
Bull call spread (wide)~90d expiry
  • Long call 25 @ ~1.52 est
  • Short call 29 @ ~0.32 est
debit $120max +$280max −$120BE 26.20

High-conviction BUY: a wider spread keeps more of the upside while the short call still cuts cost and decay.

Open in the calculator →

Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.

Financials · annual, by fiscal year

Line itemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue$1.11B$1.25B$1.28B$1.31B$1.43B
Gross profit$359M$364M$380M$459M$517M
Operating income$132M$112M$127M$182M$261M
Net income$70.4M$76.6M$85.5M$116M$192M
Diluted EPS$0.44$0.48$0.55$0.74$1.22
Net margin6.3%6.1%6.7%8.8%13.4%

10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →

Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.

Key statistics

Valuation

Enterprise value$3.93B
EV / EBITDA12.8
EV / Sales2.7
EV / FCF22.8
P / FCF22.7
PEG (trailing)0.31
Earnings yield4.9%
FCF yield4.4%

Quality & risk

ROIC (est.)14.4%
Free cash flow$172M
Total debt$452M
Net cash-$20.1M
Altman Z-Score4.33 safe
Piotroski F-Score7/9

Capital returns

Buyback yield0.4%
Dividend yield (est.)1.1%
Shareholder yield1.5%
Shares Δ YoY+0.1%

Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.

Disclosure timeline

SEC · 8-Ks + reports
Recent disclosure tone has been improving.
  1. 8-K Officer / director change2026-06-18

    Officer/director change disclosed; follows recent CEO transition reshaping leadership

  2. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-06

    Q2 FY26 10-Q filed; pricing offsets tariffs but dilutes margins per guidance

  3. 8-K Earnings results2026-05-05

    Q2 FY26 earnings release issued, extending growth trajectory from strong FY25

  4. 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-02-25

    Reg FD investor materials furnished; no material new financial disclosure

  5. 8-K Officer / director change2026-02-23

    Paul McAndrew formally becomes CEO as Zakas retires; planned succession executed

  6. 8-K Shareholder vote2026-02-12

    Annual meeting vote results filed; directors and routine proposals approved

  7. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-02-05

    Q1 FY26 10-Q filed; brass foundry transition completed to lift efficiency

  8. 8-K Earnings results2026-02-04

    Q1 FY26 earnings release issued; results carry FY25 momentum into new year

  9. DEF 14A Proxy statement2025-12-19

    FY26 proxy: exec pay and board slate set ahead of CEO succession vote

Recent filings

all on EDGAR ↗
8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-182026-06-18open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-082026-06-10open ↗SDFiling2026-06-01open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-282026-05-29open ↗144Filing2026-05-28open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-152026-05-18open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-06open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-052026-05-05open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-30open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-29open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-27open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-03-27open ↗

Quality score

B
ValueGrowthProfitHealthMom.
ValueB-
GrowthA-
ProfitabilityA
Financial healthA-
MomentumF
  • ✓Revenue growing year-over-year
  • ✓Profitable (positive net income)
  • ✓Net margin above 10%
  • ✓Return on equity above 15%
  • ✓Liabilities below 2× equity
  • ✓P/E below 25

Fair value est.

$46.36

Undervalued +86% vs price

cheapfair valueexpensive

Modified Graham: EPS $1.22 × (8.5 + 1.5 × 22.0% growth) × 1.10 quality = 38.0× multiple. An estimate, not a price target.

22.8052-week30.29
Revenue
$1.43B
+8.7% YoY
Net margin
13.4%
ROE
19.5%
P/E
20.5

SEC fundamentals · FY 2025

'21'22'23'24'25

■ revenue · ■ net income, by fiscal year

Revenue$1.43B+8.7%
Net income$192M+65.4%
Gross profit$517M+12.6%
Operating income$261M+43.4%
Diluted EPS$1.22+64.9%
Cash & equivalents$432M+39.2%
Total assets$1.84B+12.4%
Total liabilities$857M+3.8%
Stockholders' equity$982M+21.2%
Gross: 36.1%Op.: 18.2%L/E: 0.87x

Frequently asked

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) a buy?
MWA currently carries a Buy rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. MWA's municipal water moat is delivering accelerating earnings, a fortress balance sheet, and a reasonable 21.5x P/E — buy.
What is MWA's fair value?
A Modified-Graham model based on MWA's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $46.36. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
Is MWA overvalued or undervalued?
Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, MWA currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s quality score?
MWA scores 72.69801266300396/100 (grade B) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001350593, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-06) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 1:00:38 PM.

›About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice

AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.

Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 9:00 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.

Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.

Insider activity

Form 4 · SEC

Last 90 days: 1 open-market buy · 1 sale

2026-06-08
Floyd Scott P.
EVP & Chief Commercial Officer
Tax5.91K @ $25.37$150K
2026-05-28
ZAKAS MARIETTA EDMUNDS
Former Officer and Director
Sell54.3K @ $25.26$1.37M
2026-05-15
Healy Brian C.
Director
Buy1.17K @ $25.75$30.0K
2026-03-17
Helms Todd P
SVP and CHRO
Sell10.7K @ $27.61$296K
2026-03-03
Rasmussen Melissa
SVP and CFO
Tax3.34K @ $29.36$98.1K
2026-02-25
SENGSTACK GREGG C
Director
Buy25.0K @ $29.58$739K
2026-02-23
Floyd Scott P.
EVP & Chief Commercial Officer
Award1.06K
2026-02-19
Helms Todd P
SVP and CHRO
Sell10.7K @ $29.72$319K

Earnings history

beat/miss · move
2026-05-05Beat +6.5% est▲ +1.18%8-K ↗
2026-02-04Beat +9.0% est▼ -0.15%8-K ↗
2025-11-06Beat +11.2% est▼ -3.95%8-K ↗
2025-08-04Miss -0.5% est▼ -1.24%8-K ↗
2025-05-05—▼ -0.62%8-K ↗
2025-02-04—▲ +0.52%8-K ↗

Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.

Vs tracked universe

compare →

1195 tracked peers · median

TENK Score73 vs 67
Revenue growth8.7% vs 7.5%
Net margin13.4% vs 10.0%
Return on equity19.5% vs 12.0%
P/E20.5 vs 26.2

News sentiment

EODHD · 21d
Bullish
+0.17
vs typical · 26 articles

Recent news tone vs the market's typical (which skews positive). A soft signal, not a recommendation.