Pulling SEC filings + quote and writing the call…

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 · consensus $0.53 EPS, $350M rev
Last earnings +2.4% on 2026-05-07
Debt-free natural grocer compounding comps at 7%+ with 22% ROE, trading at just 16x earnings and 0.6x sales.
Revenue (FY2025) $1.33B · FY2025
Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~133% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.
Natural Grocers is quietly executing one of the cleanest small-cap growth stories in grocery retail. FY2025 revenue grew 7.2% to $1.33B, but the real signal is that daily average comparable store sales rose 7.3% — meaning growth is coming from existing-store productivity, not just new units (the company opened only two stores in FY2025 against a stated 4-5% target). Operating income jumped 32% to $62M and net income surged 36.9% to $46.4M, expanding net margin to 3.5% from the FY2021 level of ~1.9%. EPS of $2.00 yields a 21.9% ROE — exceptional for grocery, where peers like Kroger and Sprouts run mid-teens at best.
The balance sheet is fortress-grade: zero long-term debt (paid down from FY2023), $17.1M cash (+92.9% YoY), $70.1M undrawn revolver per MD&A, and retained earnings up 31% to $149M. Liabilities/equity of 2.16x is almost entirely operating leases (the IFRS-16 artifact), not real debt. With $55M operating cash flow against $31M capex, free cash flow easily funds the planned acceleration to 6-8 new stores in FY2026 plus the $11M dividend, with room to spare.
Is NGVC a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
High-conviction BUY: a wider spread keeps more of the upside while the short call still cuts cost and decay.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $1.09B | $1.14B | $1.24B | $1.33B |
| Gross profit | $292M | $305M | $327M | $365M | $398M |
| Operating income | $28.3M | $30.2M | $31.7M | $47.0M | $62.0M |
| Net income | $20.6M | $21.4M | $23.2M | $33.9M | $46.4M |
| Diluted EPS | $0.91 | $0.94 | $1.02 | $1.47 | $2.00 |
| Net margin | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Q2 FY26 financials filed; reflects ongoing comp-store growth
Q2 FY26 financials filed; reflects ongoing comp-store growth
Annual meeting vote results disclosed; routine shareholder matters
Q1 FY26 financials filed; first read on FY26 trajectory
Q1 FY26 financials filed; first read on FY26 trajectory
FY25: rev $1.33B (+7.2%), net inc $46.4M (+36.9%), EPS $2.00, debt-free
Q4/FY25 earnings: net sales +7.2%, net income +36.9%, EBITDA +20.4%
Officer/director change disclosed under Item 5.02
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001547459, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 3:09:04 PM.
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 11:09 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
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Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.
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