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Research & education only — not financial advice.TENK is not a registered investment adviser; calls are impersonal, generated from SEC filings and a delayed/third-party price feed, and may be wrong or out of date. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates — see Disclosures. Do your own research.

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Home›Stocks›NGVC
NGVC logo

NGVC

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 · consensus $0.53 EPS, $350M rev

Last earnings +2.4% on 2026-05-07

Buy
$32.60
▲ +3.62%
$32.60▼ -15.25%
over 1Y
L $23.45H $40.30
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+3.6%
1W+3.5%
1M+12.0%
3M+25.4%
YTD+33.4%
1Y-15.3%
OverviewFinancialsValuationQualityTimelineFilings
Rating
Buy
Quality
B
Valuation
Undervalued
Filings
Clean
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 9 analysts
Buy

Debt-free natural grocer compounding comps at 7%+ with 22% ROE, trading at just 16x earnings and 0.6x sales.

Revenue (FY2025) $1.33B · FY2025

The read

Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~133% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.

Natural Grocers is quietly executing one of the cleanest small-cap growth stories in grocery retail. FY2025 revenue grew 7.2% to $1.33B, but the real signal is that daily average comparable store sales rose 7.3% — meaning growth is coming from existing-store productivity, not just new units (the company opened only two stores in FY2025 against a stated 4-5% target). Operating income jumped 32% to $62M and net income surged 36.9% to $46.4M, expanding net margin to 3.5% from the FY2021 level of ~1.9%. EPS of $2.00 yields a 21.9% ROE — exceptional for grocery, where peers like Kroger and Sprouts run mid-teens at best.

The balance sheet is fortress-grade: zero long-term debt (paid down from FY2023), $17.1M cash (+92.9% YoY), $70.1M undrawn revolver per MD&A, and retained earnings up 31% to $149M. Liabilities/equity of 2.16x is almost entirely operating leases (the IFRS-16 artifact), not real debt. With $55M operating cash flow against $31M capex, free cash flow easily funds the planned acceleration to 6-8 new stores in FY2026 plus the $11M dividend, with room to spare.

Is NGVC a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →

The options angle

model · matches our verdict
Bull call spread (wide)~90d expiry
  • Long call 33 @ ~2.45 est
  • Short call 37 @ ~1.09 est
debit $136max +$264max −$136BE 34.36

High-conviction BUY: a wider spread keeps more of the upside while the short call still cuts cost and decay.

Open in the calculator →

Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.

Financials · annual, by fiscal year

Line itemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue$1.06B$1.09B$1.14B$1.24B$1.33B
Gross profit$292M$305M$327M$365M$398M
Operating income$28.3M$30.2M$31.7M$47.0M$62.0M
Net income$20.6M$21.4M$23.2M$33.9M$46.4M
Diluted EPS$0.91$0.94$1.02$1.47$2.00
Net margin1.9%2.0%2.0%2.7%3.5%

Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.

Key statistics

Valuation

Enterprise value$734M
EV / EBITDA7.8
EV / Sales0.6
EV / FCF30.5
P / FCF31.2
PEG (trailing)0.44
Earnings yield6.2%
FCF yield3.2%

Quality & risk

ROIC (est.)23.1%
Free cash flow$24.1M
Total debt$0.00
Net cash$17.1M
Altman Z-Score3.60 safe
Piotroski F-Score8/9

Capital returns

Buyback yield0.0%
Dividend yield (est.)1.5%
Shareholder yield1.5%
Shares Δ YoY+0.6%

Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.

Disclosure timeline

SEC · 8-Ks + reports
Recent disclosure tone has been improving.
  1. 8-K Earnings results2026-05-07

    Q2 FY26 financials filed; reflects ongoing comp-store growth

  2. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-07

    Q2 FY26 financials filed; reflects ongoing comp-store growth

  3. 8-K Shareholder vote2026-03-10

    Annual meeting vote results disclosed; routine shareholder matters

  4. 8-K Earnings results2026-02-05

    Q1 FY26 financials filed; first read on FY26 trajectory

  5. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-02-05

    Q1 FY26 financials filed; first read on FY26 trajectory

  6. DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-01-22
  7. 10-K Annual report2025-12-11

    FY25: rev $1.33B (+7.2%), net inc $46.4M (+36.9%), EPS $2.00, debt-free

  8. 8-K Earnings results2025-11-20

    Q4/FY25 earnings: net sales +7.2%, net income +36.9%, EBITDA +20.4%

  9. 8-K Officer / director change2025-10-29

    Officer/director change disclosed under Item 5.02

Recent filings

all on EDGAR ↗
4Period ending 2026-05-292026-06-02open ↗144Filing2026-05-27open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-072026-05-07open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-07open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-03-042026-03-10open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-042026-03-06open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-042026-03-06open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-042026-03-06open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-02-052026-02-05open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2025-12-312026-02-05open ↗ARSPeriod ending 2025-09-302026-01-22open ↗DEFA14AFiling2026-01-22open ↗

Quality score

B
ValueGrowthProfitHealthMom.
ValueA
GrowthA-
ProfitabilityC+
Financial healthB
MomentumC+
  • ✓Revenue growing year-over-year
  • ✓Profitable (positive net income)
  • ✗Net margin above 10%
  • ✓Return on equity above 15%
  • ✗Liabilities below 2× equity
  • ✓P/E below 25

Fair value est.

$76.00

Undervalued +133% vs price

cheapfair valueexpensive

Modified Graham: EPS $2.00 × (8.5 + 1.5 × 22.0% growth) × 1.04 quality = 38.0× multiple. An estimate, not a price target.

23.4552-week40.30
Revenue
$1.33B
+7.2% YoY
Net margin
3.5%
ROE
21.9%
P/E
16.3

SEC fundamentals · FY 2025

'21'22'23'24'25

■ revenue · ■ net income, by fiscal year

Revenue$1.33B+7.2%
Net income$46.4M+36.9%
Gross profit$398M+9.1%
Operating income$62.0M+32.0%
Diluted EPS$2.00+36.1%
Cash & equivalents$17.1M+92.9%
Total assets$671M+2.3%
Total liabilities$458M-4.8%
Stockholders' equity$212M+21.9%
Gross: 29.9%Op.: 4.7%L/E: 2.16x

Frequently asked

Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) a buy?
NGVC currently carries a Buy rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Debt-free natural grocer compounding comps at 7%+ with 22% ROE, trading at just 16x earnings and 0.6x sales.
What is NGVC's fair value?
A Modified-Graham model based on NGVC's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $76.00. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
Is NGVC overvalued or undervalued?
Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, NGVC currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
What is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s quality score?
NGVC scores 73.36153200512345/100 (grade B) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001547459, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 3:09:04 PM.

›About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice

AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.

Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 11:09 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.

Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.

Insider activity

Form 4 · SEC

Last 90 days: 0 open-market buys · 1 sale

2026-05-29
Isely Charity
Insider
Sell3.00K @ $29.04$87.1K
2026-03-05
Rooney David C.
Director
Exercise1.53K
2026-03-05
Cerkovnik Edward
Director
Exercise1.53K
2026-03-05
Buffa Sandra
Director
Exercise1.53K
2025-11-03
Isely Raquel M.
Insider
Exercise4.00K
2025-11-03
Isely Raquel M.
Insider
Tax1.15K @ $32.09$36.9K
2025-11-03
Linnane Robert
Insider
Exercise2.00K
2025-11-03
Linnane Robert
Insider
Tax659.00 @ $32.09$21.1K
2025-11-03
Isely Charity
Insider
Exercise2.00K
2025-11-03
Isely Charity
Insider
Tax593.00 @ $32.09$19.0K
2025-10-01
Isely Raquel M.
Insider
Exercise480.00
2025-10-01
Isely Raquel M.
Insider
Tax157.00 @ $40.00$6.28K

Earnings history

beat/miss · move
2026-05-07Beat +3.1% est▼ -6.32%8-K ↗
2026-02-05Beat +4.4% est▲ +2.97%8-K ↗
2025-11-20Beat +19.0% est▼ -11.02%8-K ↗
2025-08-07—▼ -2.30%8-K ↗
2025-05-08—▲ +7.80%8-K ↗
2025-02-06—▲ +13.88%8-K ↗

Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.

Vs tracked universe

compare →

1195 tracked peers · median

TENK Score73 vs 67
Revenue growth7.2% vs 7.5%
Net margin3.5% vs 10.0%
Return on equity21.9% vs 12.0%
P/E16.3 vs 26.2