OSG
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC
Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 · consensus $-0.01 EPS, $71.6M rev
Last earnings -3.7% on 2026-05-06
$6.34
▼ -0.31%$6.34▼ -9.94%
over 1Y
L $3.94H $10.08
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-0.3%
1W+3.1%
1M+22.4%
3M+37.2%
YTD-15.1%
1Y-9.9%
Avoid
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
Street · 7 analysts
Buy
Unprofitable financial-guarantee runoff pivoting to specialty P&C — cash-burning, wildly volatile earnings and warrant dilution outweigh a cheap book.
Revenue (contract) $143M · FY2025
OSG is a legacy financial-guarantee insurer (the old Ambac franchise) mid-transformation into Insurance Distribution and Specialty P&C, and the numbers show a business that is not yet earning its keep. Reported FY2025 net income was -$259M on $143M of contract revenue (net margin -180.7%, ROE -36.2%), and the earnings stream is fundamentally unknowable: net income swung from +$522M (2021) to +$4.95M (2023) to -$556M (2024) to -$259M (2025). That volatility is inherent to running off financial-guarantee exposure, and the September 2025 sale of AAC (the Legacy Financial Guarantee business, including Ambac UK) to Oaktree's American Acorn for $420M drove a 72.4% collapse in total assets and a large loss-on-sale booked in discontinued operations. You cannot underwrite a forward earnings power from data this discontinuous.
Stripping to continuing operations, the MD&A confirms the pivot is still loss-making: FY2025 total revenues of $251.2M against $352.2M of expenses for a pretax loss of $101.0M, versus a $59.8M pretax loss in 2024 — the loss widened. Only the Specialty P&C segment turned a profit (pretax +$3.3M), while Insurance Distribution swung to a -$20.5M pretax loss and Corporate & Other bled -$83.9M. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to shareholders went the wrong way, from +$2.2M in 2024 to -$7.5M in 2025. This is corroborated by cash: operating cash flow was -$52.3M against only $70.1M of cash on hand — roughly a year of runway before the $100M of long-term debt or dilution must fill the gap.
Is OSG a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
The options angle
model · matches our verdictBear put spread (caution)~90d expiry
- Long put 6.5 @ ~0.69 est
- Short put 5.5 @ ~0.25 est
debit $44max +$56max −$44BE 6.06
AVOID means we wouldn't engage at all — if expressing the short side anyway, only with capped risk.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.0M | $30.7M | $51.3M | $92.0M | $143M |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | -$17.0M | $522M | $4.95M | -$556M | -$259M |
| Diluted EPS | -$0.61 | $11.48 | $0.18 | -$11.96 | -$5.93 |
| Net margin | -65.4% | 1701.0% | 9.7% | -604.3% | -180.7% |
10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value—
EV / EBITDA—
EV / Sales—
EV / FCF—
P / FCF—
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield-90.8%
FCF yield—
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)—
Free cash flow—
Total debt$100M
Net cash-$29.9M
Piotroski F-Score3/7
Capital returns
Buyback yield10.5%
Dividend yield (est.)—
Shareholder yield10.5%
Shares Δ YoY-2.8%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRecent disclosure tone has skewed negative — read the flagged items.
- 8-K Shareholder vote2026-05-29
Annual meeting: directors elected, routine shareholder proposals ratified
- 8-K Earnings results2026-05-06
Q1 2026: first clean quarter as pure specialty P&C + distribution insurer
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-06
Q1 2026: first clean quarter as pure specialty P&C + distribution insurer
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-04-10
Proxy for 2026 annual meeting: board slate, pay and auditor ratification
- 8-K Material agreement2026-04-07
Entered new financing agreement, creating a direct debt obligation for OSG
- 10-K Annual report2026-03-04
FY2025: sold legacy Ambac guarantee biz, bought ArmadaCorp; net loss $259M
- 8-K Earnings results2026-02-23
FY2025 results: net loss of ~$259M despite 56% revenue growth
- 8-K Exhibits2026-01-06
Filed exhibits/pro-forma financials, likely reflecting the AAC divestiture
- 8-K Auditor change2025-12-15
Change in certifying accountant — auditor swap disclosed to shareholders
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-282026-05-29open ↗DEFA14AFiling2026-05-14open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-11open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-11open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-06open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-062026-05-06open ↗ARSPeriod ending 2025-12-312026-04-10open ↗DEFA14AFiling2026-04-10open ↗DEF 14APeriod ending 2025-12-312026-04-10open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-012026-04-07open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-012026-04-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-012026-04-02open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG) a buy?
- OSG currently carries a Avoid rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Unprofitable financial-guarantee runoff pivoting to specialty P&C — cash-burning, wildly volatile earnings and warrant dilution outweigh a cheap book.
- What is OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC's quality score?
- OSG scores 58.832064716366546/100 (grade C) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000874501, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-06) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 7/3/2026, 10:30:06 AM.
About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jul 3, 2026, 6:30 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.