POST
Post Holdings, Inc.
Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 (after close) · consensus $1.76 EPS, $2.07B rev
Last earnings -0.7% on 2026-05-07
$92.78
▲ +3.40%$92.78▼ -14.67%
over 1Y
L $86.68H $114.61
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+3.4%
1W+3.9%
1M+2.4%
3M-7.5%
YTD-6.9%
1Y-14.7%
Hold
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 14 analysts
Buy
Levered CPG roll-up with steady cash flow and aggressive buybacks, but flat operating profit, rising interest drag, and HPAI/tariff risk cap upside.
Revenue $8.16B · FY2025
The read
Middling fundamentals and a rich price (~57% above fair value) leave little margin of safety — a wait-and-see.
Post is a four-segment CPG holding company (Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail) executing the playbook it always has: bolt-on M&A funded by debt, then squeeze cash flow and shrink the share count. FY2025 revenue grew 3.0% to $8.16B, but operating profit was essentially flat (+0.7% to $799M) and net income fell 8.5% to $336M — diluted EPS only declined 2.3% to $5.51 because shares outstanding fell 10.8% YoY. That is the entire equity story: management is buying back stock faster than the business is shrinking per share, and at 16.5x earnings and 0.6x sales the market is paying a fair-but-not-cheap price for that arbitrage.
The MD&A makes the pressure points explicit. Interest expense jumped 14% to $361M as Post layered on debt to close 8th Avenue (July 2025) and Potato Products of Idaho (March 2025); long-term debt rose 9.0% to $7.42B against just $3.75B of equity (L/E 2.60x), and cash collapsed 77.6% to $177M. Operating profit also absorbed a $29.8M goodwill impairment. Meanwhile, the Risk Factors flag two live operational headwinds: HPAI (avian influenza) outbreaks that drove egg-supply volatility in Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail and are expected to continue into fiscal 2026, plus the 2025 U.S. tariff regime and retaliatory tariffs that management explicitly warns will increase commodity volatility and supply-chain cost. The pending divestiture of 8th Avenue's pasta business is a cleanup, not a catalyst.
Is POST a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
The options angle
model · matches our verdictCovered call~60d expiry
- Long 100 shares @ ~92.78
- Short call 97 @ ~3.03 est
debit $8,975max +$725max −$8,974BE 89.75
HOLD means own it, don't chase it — harvesting premium against the position matches the verdict.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.98B | $5.85B | $6.99B | $7.92B | $8.16B |
| Gross profit | $1.43B | $1.47B | $1.88B | $2.30B | $2.34B |
| Operating income | $488M | $416M | $599M | $794M | $799M |
| Net income | $167M | $757M | $301M | $367M | $336M |
| Diluted EPS | $2.38 | $12.09 | $4.82 | $5.64 | $5.51 |
| Net margin | 3.3% | 12.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$11.5B
EV / EBITDA8.7
EV / Sales1.4
EV / FCF23.5
P / FCF8.6
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield8.0%
FCF yield11.6%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)5.7%
Free cash flow$488M
Total debt$7.42B
Net cash-$7.25B
Altman Z-Score1.35 distress
Piotroski F-Score4/9
Capital returns
Buyback yield10.5%
Dividend yield (est.)0.3%
Shareholder yield10.9%
Shares Δ YoY-10.8%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRecent disclosure tone has skewed negative — read the flagged items.
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-05-07
Q2 FY26 10-Q filed; ongoing HPAI volatility and tariff cost pressure continue
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-07
Q2 FY26 10-Q filed; ongoing HPAI volatility and tariff cost pressure continue
- 8-K New financial obligation2026-03-13
Created a new direct financial obligation — added debt, raising leverage further
- 8-K Other event2026-03-04
Companion other-events filing covering financing/transaction details
- 8-K Other event2026-03-04
Companion other-events filing covering financing/transaction details
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-02-05
Q1 FY26 10-Q — first full quarter including 8th Avenue and PPI acquisitions
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-02-05
Q1 FY26 10-Q — first full quarter including 8th Avenue and PPI acquisitions
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-02-05
Q1 FY26 10-Q — first full quarter including 8th Avenue and PPI acquisitions
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2025-12-15
Annual proxy: routine board, exec comp and auditor ratification items
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-02open ↗11-KPeriod ending 2025-12-312026-06-16open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-292026-06-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-292026-06-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-292026-06-02open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) a buy?
- POST currently carries a Hold rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Levered CPG roll-up with steady cash flow and aggressive buybacks, but flat operating profit, rising interest drag, and HPAI/tariff risk cap upside.
- What is POST's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on POST's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $40.04. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is POST overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, POST currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is Post Holdings, Inc.'s quality score?
- POST scores 61.68642933813973/100 (grade C+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001530950, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 1:00:43 PM.
About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 9:00 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.