REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 · consensus $0.44 EPS, $15.7M rev
Last earnings -5.1% on 2026-05-07
$10.68
▼ -3.52%$10.68▼ -14.51%
over 1Y
L $10.57H $12.85
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-3.5%
1W-3.2%
1M-5.3%
3M-3.0%
YTD-9.2%
1Y-14.5%
Hold
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 11 analysts
Buy
Cheap cannabis-lending mortgage REIT below book with a fat yield, but slipping earnings and a dividend outrunning cash flow cap the upside.
P/E (price / FY diluted EPS) 6.4 · FY2025
The read
Middling fundamentals offset by an attractive price (~40% below fair value) — worth a look on the value angle.
REFI is a Maryland commercial mortgage REIT that lends against cannabis cultivation/processing facilities — a niche that is the whole story. The balance sheet is genuinely strong: liabilities/equity of just 0.38x, long-term debt of only $49.3M against $308M of equity, and a 73.7% net margin with 11.7% ROE. At $10.68 the stock trades at 6.4x FY2025 diluted EPS and roughly 0.73x book ($308M equity vs. $225M market cap), having already slid from the $12.27 close the 10-K cites on March 6, 2026. On valuation alone this looks like a discounted, profitable lender.
The caution is that the fundamentals are quietly eroding, not compounding. Net income has stepped down three years running — $38.7M (FY2023) → $37.0M (FY2024) → $36.0M (FY2025) — and diluted EPS fell 10.6% to $1.68. More telling, the payout looks stretched: dividends paid of $43.8M exceed both FY2025 net income ($36.0M) and operating cash flow ($28.8M), retained earnings sank to -$15.5M (worse by 53%), and cash dropped 43.4% to $14.9M. REITs must distribute ~90% of taxable income and distributions can run ahead of GAAP earnings, but a dividend funded beyond earnings and operating cash — while the cash balance shrinks — is not indefinitely sustainable without loan-principal recycling or new capital.
Is REFI a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
The options angle
model · matches our verdictCovered call~60d expiry
- Long 100 shares @ ~10.68
- Short call 11 @ ~0.35 est
debit $1,033max +$67max −$1,032BE 10.33
HOLD means own it, don't chase it — harvesting premium against the position matches the verdict.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.9M | — | — | — |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $32.3M | $38.7M | $37.0M | $36.0M |
| Diluted EPS | $1.82 | $2.11 | $1.88 | $1.68 |
| Net margin | 66.1% | — | — | — |
10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value—
EV / EBITDA—
EV / Sales—
EV / FCF—
P / FCF—
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield15.8%
FCF yield—
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)—
Free cash flow—
Total debt$334M
Net cash-$319M
Piotroski F-Score2/6
Capital returns
Buyback yield—
Dividend yield (est.)19.3%
Shareholder yield19.3%
Shares Δ YoY+0.9%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRecent disclosure tone has skewed negative — read the flagged items.
- 8-K Material agreement2026-06-18
Entered material definitive agreement (item 1.01), likely a new/amended financing or loan
- 8-K Shareholder vote2026-06-11
Annual meeting voting results reported (item 5.07)
- 8-K Earnings results2026-05-07
Q1 2026 report; equity ~$308M, low leverage 0.38x, OCF trending up
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-07
Q1 2026 report; equity ~$308M, low leverage 0.38x, OCF trending up
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-04-23
2026 proxy: board election and routine governance/comp matters
- 8-K Earnings results2026-03-12
FY2025 10-K: net income $36.0M, EPS $1.68 (-10.6%), dividends +5.3%
- 10-K Annual report2026-03-12
FY2025 10-K: net income $36.0M, EPS $1.68 (-10.6%), dividends +5.3%
- S-3 Shelf registration (potential raise)2026-01-16
Shelf registration filed, enabling future equity/debt issuance (potential dilution)
- 8-K Earnings results2025-11-04
Q3 2025 report; stable equity, cannabis-lending portfolio performing
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗425Filing2026-06-18open ↗425Filing2026-06-18open ↗DEFA14AFiling2026-06-18open ↗425Filing2026-06-18open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-172026-06-18open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-112026-06-11open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-072026-05-07open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-07open ↗ARSPeriod ending 2025-12-312026-04-23open ↗DEF 14APeriod ending 2026-04-222026-04-23open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-202026-04-22open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-202026-04-22open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) a buy?
- REFI currently carries a Hold rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Cheap cannabis-lending mortgage REIT below book with a fat yield, but slipping earnings and a dividend outrunning cash flow cap the upside.
- What is REFI's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on REFI's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $14.99. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is REFI overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, REFI currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s quality score?
- REFI scores 61.88199247664118/100 (grade C+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001867949, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 7/3/2026, 11:06:47 AM.
About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jul 3, 2026, 7:06 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.