SES

SES is a pre-commercial, story-driven company whose FY2025 headline — revenue +929% to $21.0M — collapses on inspection. Roughly $13.6M of the $21.0M was service revenue from a full year of OEM battery-materials service contracts (vs. one quarter in 2024), i.e. lumpy project work off a $2.0M base, not durable product demand. Against that, operating loss was -$82.6M (operating margin -393.4%), net loss -$73.0M, and R&D alone ($67.0M) was over 3x total revenue. This is an R&D lab with a ticker, not a business, and management concedes it: the MD&A states outright it expects 'to sustain substantial operating expenses, without generating sufficient revenues to cover expenditures, for a few more years,' against an accumulated deficit of $373.7M.

The balance sheet is where 'avoid' becomes non-negotiable. Cash fell 77.1% to $29.5M while operating cash burn ran -$58.4M for the year — that is roughly six months of runway. Capex is already cut to the bone ($2.86M, -76.6%), so there is little discretionary spend left to trim without gutting the R&D that is the entire thesis. Reported stockholders' equity of $215M is dominated by non-cash/illiquid assets; the liquid buffer that actually funds the company is nearly gone. A capital raise — equity dilution at a sub-$1 price, or debt this balance sheet can't comfortably carry — looks close to unavoidable, and the -7.47% day and $0.88 quote reflect a market already pricing that in.