SIGA

SIGA is a one-product, one-customer story: TPOXX (tecovirimat), a smallpox antiviral sold overwhelmingly to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile and a handful of foreign governments. That makes revenue inherently lumpy and reorder-dependent, and FY2025 shows the downside of that model — revenue fell 31.8% to $94.6M, operating income collapsed 66.1% to $23.7M, net income dropped 60.7% to $23.3M, and diluted EPS fell to $0.32. Set against a five-year record that oscillated between $94.6M and $140M of revenue, FY2025 looks like a trough year in a business that simply doesn't compound.

The balance sheet, however, is pristine and is the core of the bull case. The company holds $155M of cash against just $20.6M of total liabilities and essentially no debt (liabilities/equity 0.10x), so roughly $2.16/share of the $3.86 price is cash. That strips enterprise value to only ~$120M against $23.7M of operating income and $43.5M of operating cash flow — an EV/OCF under 3x. At a 12.1x P/E and 2.9x sales, you are not paying up for growth you won't get; you're being paid to wait, and the Board is returning capital (a $0.60 special dividend drove $43.1M of dividends paid, which is also why retained earnings sit at -$43.1M despite years of profits).