TTENK/calls
The BriefMarketsAll StocksNewsScreenerFeedback

Get the Brief in your inbox

A daily, SEC-grounded read on the market — movers, earnings, and our boldest calls. Free.

TTENK/calls

SEC-grounded equity research — opinionated calls reasoned over real filings.

Research

  • The Brief
  • Markets
  • All Stocks
  • Screener
  • Discover
  • Research
  • The Flip Side
  • Track record

Tools

  • Compare
  • Congress trades
  • Events
  • Filing search
  • Options calculator
  • Leaderboards
  • Insider trades
  • 13F funds
  • Groups
  • Trending
  • News

More

  • Pricing
  • Feedback
  • Newsletter
  • Developers / API
  • Account
DisclosuresTermsPrivacy

Research & education only — not financial advice.TENK is not a registered investment adviser; calls are impersonal, generated from SEC filings and a delayed/third-party price feed, and may be wrong or out of date. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates — see Disclosures. Do your own research.

EDGAR® is a registered trademark of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. TENK/calls is an independent service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

TTENK/calls
The BriefMarketsAll StocksNewsScreenerFeedback

Pulling SEC filings + quote and writing the call…

TTENK/calls
The BriefMarketsAll StocksNewsScreenerFeedback
← New search
Home›Stocks›TOL
TOL logo

TOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Next earnings Aug 17, 2026 (after close) · consensus $2.94 EPS, $2.63B rev

Last earnings -2.2% on 2026-05-19

Buy
$157.14
▼ -4.69%
$157.14▲ +38.75%
over 1Y
L $113.14H $165.81
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-4.7%
1W-3.0%
1M+12.6%
3M+15.9%
YTD+16.3%
1Y+38.7%
OverviewFinancialsValuationQualityTimelineFilings
Rating
Buy
Quality
B
Valuation
Overvalued
Filings
Watch
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
Street · 24 analysts
Buy

A profitable luxury homebuilder at 11.5x earnings, buying back 5% of its stock a year — cheap, with cyclical risk priced in.

Diluted EPS $13.49 · FY2025

The read

The fundamentals carry the rating, but the price is rich (~27% above our fair-value estimate) — a quality-at-a-price call. The case rests on the business, not the entry; patient buyers may wait for a pullback.

Toll Brothers is a high-quality luxury homebuilder trading at a clearly modest valuation. FY2025 revenue held roughly flat at $11.0B (+1.1%) while net income slipped 14.3% to $1.35B and diluted EPS came in at $13.49 — a normal mid-cycle moderation after the post-pandemic peak, not a collapse. Even after the decline, the company earned a 16.3% ROE on a 12.3% net margin and 15.7% operating margin. At $155.67 the stock trades at just an 11.5 P/E and a 1.3 P/S, which embeds meaningful caution about the housing cycle.

Capital allocation is a standout. Toll bought back $651M of stock (shares outstanding fell 5.0% YoY) and paid $97.1M in dividends, while still growing book value — equity rose 7.8% to $8.27B and retained earnings reached $8.57B. The balance sheet is sound for a builder, with $6.23B of liabilities against $8.27B of equity (0.75x) and $1.26B of cash. Operating cash flow of $1.11B (up 10.1%) funded those returns comfortably. Toll's vertical integration — its Toll Integrated Systems subsidiary manufactures wall panels, trusses and millwork — supports cost control and quality, as the filing describes.

Is TOL a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →

The options angle

model · matches our verdict
Bull call spread~60d expiry
  • Long call 157 @ ~12.99 est
  • Short call 173 @ ~6.95 est
debit $604max +$996max −$604BE 163.04

BUY verdict with defined risk: the short call finances part of the long one; max loss is the net debit.

Open in the calculator →

Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.

Financials · annual, by fiscal year

Line itemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue$8.79B$10.3B$9.99B$10.8B$11.0B
Gross profit—————
Operating income$1.02B$1.51B$1.72B$2.04B$1.72B
Net income$834M$1.29B$1.37B$1.57B$1.35B
Diluted EPS$6.63$10.90$12.36$15.01$13.49
Net margin9.5%12.5%13.7%14.5%12.3%

10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →

Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.

Key statistics

Valuation

Enterprise value—
EV / EBITDA—
EV / Sales—
EV / FCF—
P / FCF14.3
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield9.2%
FCF yield7.0%

Quality & risk

ROIC (est.)16.4%
Free cash flow$1.03B
Total debt—
Net cash$1.26B
Piotroski F-Score3/6

Capital returns

Buyback yield4.4%
Dividend yield (est.)0.7%
Shareholder yield5.1%
Shares Δ YoY-5.0%

Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.

Disclosure timeline

SEC · 8-Ks + reports
Some governance/structural items recently, but no outright red flags.
  1. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-29
  2. 8-K Earnings results2026-05-19
  3. 8-K Officer / director change2026-05-13
  4. 8-K Officer / director change2026-03-31
  5. 8-K Shareholder vote2026-03-11
  6. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-02-27
  7. 8-K Earnings results2026-02-17
  8. 8-K Material agreement2026-02-05
  9. DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-01-29

Recent filings

all on EDGAR ↗
3Period ending 2026-06-302026-07-01open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-182026-06-22open ↗144Filing2026-06-18open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-182026-06-18open ↗144Filing2026-06-09open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-04-302026-05-29open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-192026-05-19open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-122026-05-13open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-30open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-152026-04-16open ↗144Filing2026-04-15open ↗3Period ending 2026-03-302026-03-31open ↗

Quality score

B
ValueGrowthProfitHealthMom.
ValueA
GrowthF
ProfitabilityB+
Financial healthA-
MomentumB
  • ✓Revenue growing year-over-year
  • ✓Profitable (positive net income)
  • ✓Net margin above 10%
  • ✓Return on equity above 15%
  • ✓P/E below 25

Fair value est.

$114.67

Overvalued -27% vs price

cheapfair valueexpensive

Modified Graham: EPS $13.49 × (8.5 + 1.5 × 0.0% growth) × 1.00 quality = 8.5× multiple. An estimate, not a price target.

113.1452-week165.81
Revenue
$11.0B
+1.1% YoY
Net margin
12.3%
ROE
16.3%
P/E
11.6

SEC fundamentals · FY 2025

'21'22'23'24'25

■ revenue · ■ net income, by fiscal year

Revenue$11.0B+1.1%
Net income$1.35B-14.3%
Operating income$1.72B-15.7%
Diluted EPS$13.49-10.1%
Cash & equivalents$1.26B-3.4%
Total assets$14.5B+8.6%
Total liabilities$6.23B+9.7%
Stockholders' equity$8.27B+7.8%
Op.: 15.7%L/E: 0.75x

Frequently asked

Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) a buy?
TOL currently carries a Buy rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. A profitable luxury homebuilder at 11.5x earnings, buying back 5% of its stock a year — cheap, with cyclical risk priced in.
What is TOL's fair value?
A Modified-Graham model based on TOL's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $114.67. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
Is TOL overvalued or undervalued?
Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, TOL currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s quality score?
TOL scores 70.30048135138024/100 (grade B) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000794170, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-29) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 8:45:49 PM.

›About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice

AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.

Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 4:45 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.

Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.

Insider activity

Form 4 · SEC

Last 90 days: 0 open-market buys · 3 sales

2026-06-18
Parahus Robert
President & COO
Sell7.50K @ $149.66$1.12M
2026-06-18
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Executive Chairman
Exercise78.0K @ $31.61$2.46M
2026-06-18
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Executive Chairman
Sell78.0K @ $156.58$12.2M
2026-04-15
East Stephen F.
Director
Sell1.00K @ $139.70$140K
2026-03-04
McLean John A
Director
Exercise2.31K @ $31.61$73.1K
2026-03-04
McLean John A
Director
Sell2.31K @ $153.43$355K
2026-02-27
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Chief Executive Officer
Exercise27.0K @ $31.61$854K
2026-02-27
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Chief Executive Officer
Sell27.0K @ $159.15$4.30M
2026-02-24
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Chief Executive Officer
Exercise45.1K @ $31.61$1.43M
2026-02-24
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Chief Executive Officer
Sell43.0K @ $160.39$6.90M
2026-02-24
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Chief Executive Officer
Sell2.10K @ $161.04$339K
2026-01-31
Ziegler Gregg L.
Chief Financial Officer
Exercise4.90K

Held by tracked funds

Form 13F · SEC · quarterly
Millennium ManagementIzzy Englander814K sh$111M
Two Sigma Investments450K sh$61.4M
Point72 Asset ManagementSteve Cohen280K sh$38.2M
Bridgewater AssociatesRay Dalio (founder)217K sh$29.7M

As of each fund’s latest quarterly 13F — a delayed snapshot, not a live position. All tracked funds →

Dividends

Quarterly
Yield (TTM)
0.8%
Annual / share
$1.27
Last ex-date
2026-07-10
Last amount
$0.26
ex 2026-07-10paid 2026-07-24$0.26
ex 2026-04-10paid 2026-04-24$0.26
ex 2026-01-09paid 2026-01-23$0.25
ex 2025-10-10paid 2025-10-24$0.25
ex 2025-07-11paid 2025-07-25$0.25
ex 2025-04-11paid 2025-04-25$0.25

Source: EODHD. Yield = trailing-12-month dividends ÷ price.

Earnings history

beat/miss · move
2026-05-19Beat +2.6% est▼ -2.23%8-K ↗
2026-02-17Miss -7.3% est▼ -1.38%8-K ↗
2025-12-08Beat +2.5% est▼ -1.97%8-K ↗
2025-08-19—▲ +0.76%8-K ↗
2025-05-20—▼ -1.45%8-K ↗
2025-02-18—▼ -1.28%8-K ↗

Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.

Congressional trades

all activity →

Disclosed under the STOCK Act

2020-10-24Susie LeeSell$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2020-09-03Susie LeeBuy$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗
2020-09-03Susie LeeBuy$1.00K–$15.0KPTR ↗

Self-reported periodic transaction reports (STOCK Act). Amounts are disclosed ranges; a trade may be a spouse's. Disclosures lag the trade by up to ~45 days. Source: House Clerk + Senate eFD.

Recent news

market news →
Why the U.S. housing shortage might be nearing its endBearish
seekingalpha.com· 2026-07-03
3 Overrated Industrials Stocks with Open QuestionsBullish
finance.yahoo.com· 2026-07-02
Toll Brothers Announces New Home Sites in Regency at Santa Rita Ranch 55+ Community Near AustinBullish
finance.yahoo.com· 2026-07-01
Toll Brothers Announces New Home Sites in Regency at Santa Rita Ranch 55+ Community Near AustinBullish
globenewswire.com· 2026-07-01
Toll Brothers (TOL): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?Bullish
finance.yahoo.com· 2026-07-01
Toll Brothers Grand Opens New Model Home at Camas Meadows Crossing in Camas, WashingtonBullish
globenewswire.com· 2026-06-30

Vs tracked universe

compare →

1194 tracked peers · median

TENK Score70 vs 67
Revenue growth1.1% vs 7.5%
Net margin12.3% vs 10.0%
Return on equity16.3% vs 12.0%
P/E11.6 vs 26.2

News sentiment

EODHD · 48d
Bearish
-0.21
vs typical · 188 articles
↓ cooling

Recent news tone vs the market's typical (which skews positive). A soft signal, not a recommendation.