TVRD

Tvardi is a clinical-stage biopharma with no approved product and no durable revenue — the $7.14M FY2024 'revenue' fell 66% YoY and FY2025 revenue isn't even reported, so the 2.7x P/S is meaningless legacy/collaboration income, not a franchise. The whole valuation rests on two oral STAT3 inhibitors (TTI-101, TTI-109), and the most advanced late-stage bet just broke: in October 2025 the Phase 2 of TTI-101 in IPF 'did not meet its goals.' Management's response — re-analyzing a hand-picked subset that 'excluded certain patients due to dosing, pharmacokinetic, or clinical factors' to claim 'proof of concept' — is exactly the kind of post-hoc salvage language that should lower, not raise, confidence. What's left (HCC Phase 1b/2 and a Phase 1 prodrug) is early and binary.

The balance sheet frames the clock. FY2025 operating cash flow was -$23.5M against $20.7M cash plus $10.1M short-term investments (~$30.8M), i.e. roughly a single year of runway before another raise. The company itself says it expects 'to continue to incur significant operating losses for the foreseeable future and may never become profitable.' It has already financed entirely through preferred stock and convertible notes, share count more than doubled (+105% YoY) via the April 2025 Cara reverse merger, and accumulated deficit is -$110.5M. Dilution or convert overhang is close to a certainty, and it will land on just 9.38M shares.