TTENK/calls
The BriefMarketsAll StocksNewsScreenerFeedback

Get the Brief in your inbox

A daily, SEC-grounded read on the market — movers, earnings, and our boldest calls. Free.

TTENK/calls

SEC-grounded equity research — opinionated calls reasoned over real filings.

Research

  • The Brief
  • Markets
  • All Stocks
  • Screener
  • Discover
  • Research
  • The Flip Side
  • Track record

Tools

  • Compare
  • Congress trades
  • Events
  • Filing search
  • Options calculator
  • Leaderboards
  • Insider trades
  • 13F funds
  • Groups
  • Trending
  • News

More

  • Pricing
  • Feedback
  • Newsletter
  • Developers / API
  • Account
DisclosuresTermsPrivacy

Research & education only — not financial advice.TENK is not a registered investment adviser; calls are impersonal, generated from SEC filings and a delayed/third-party price feed, and may be wrong or out of date. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates — see Disclosures. Do your own research.

EDGAR® is a registered trademark of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. TENK/calls is an independent service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

TTENK/calls
The BriefMarketsAll StocksNewsScreenerFeedback

Pulling SEC filings + quote and writing the call…

TTENK/calls
The BriefMarketsAll StocksNewsScreenerFeedback
← New search
Home›Stocks›VEL
VEL logo

VEL

Velocity Financial, Inc.

Next earnings Aug 5, 2026 · consensus $0.65 EPS

Last earnings +1.2% on 2026-05-06

Buy
$18.57
▲ +3.11%
$18.57▼ -1.28%
over 1Y
L $16.33H $20.76
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+3.1%
1W+4.6%
1M+7.3%
3M+1.8%
YTD-5.0%
1Y-1.3%
OverviewFinancialsValuationQualityTimelineFilings
Rating
Buy
Quality
A-
Valuation
Undervalued
Filings
Clean
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 7 analysts
Buy

Cheap specialty lender compounding earnings >40%/yr at 6.4x P/E; leverage is high but structural to the securitization model.

Diluted EPS $2.75 · FY2025

The read

Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~463% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.

Velocity Financial is a vertically integrated investor-real-estate lender that has compounded net income from $29.2M (FY2021) to $105M (FY2025) — a >3.5x lift in four years — with FY2025 alone delivering +53.5% net income growth and +44% diluted EPS growth to $2.75. At $17.64, the stock trades at just 6.4x trailing earnings on a business the MD&A says earned a 17.5% return on average equity and a 24.4% pre-tax ROAE in 2025, with a 3.61% portfolio net interest margin on a $6.5B UPB book yielding 9.45%. That is a deep mismatch between price and demonstrated profitability, and the 15.6% derived ROE confirms equity is being deployed productively rather than diluted away.

The filing language explains the structural shape of the balance sheet that scares casual screeners: liabilities/equity of 9.97x is not bank-style recklessness — the MD&A discloses 46 completed securitizations issuing $10.6B in non-recourse securities since 2011, meaning most of the $6.71B liability stack is match-funded portfolio debt against a 65.2% weighted-average LTV first-lien collateral pool spread across 48 states. The January 2026 issuance of $500M of 9.375% Senior Notes maturing 2031 termed-out near-term corporate funding needs, and retained earnings grew 53.2% to $302M, so equity is being built organically alongside the book.

Is VEL a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →

The options angle

model · matches our verdict
Bull call spread (wide)~60d expiry
  • Long call 18.5 @ ~0.70 est
  • Short call 21.5 @ ~0.03 est
debit $67max +$233max −$67BE 19.17

High-conviction BUY: a wider spread keeps more of the upside while the short call still cuts cost and decay.

Open in the calculator →

Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.

Financials · annual, by fiscal year

Line itemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue—————
Gross profit—————
Operating income—————
Net income$29.2M$32.2M$52.3M$68.4M$105M
Diluted EPS$0.86$0.94$1.52$1.91$2.75
Net margin—————

10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →

Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.

Key statistics

Valuation

Enterprise value—
EV / EBITDA—
EV / Sales—
EV / FCF—
P / FCF40.8
PEG (trailing)0.13
Earnings yield14.4%
FCF yield2.5%

Quality & risk

ROIC (est.)—
Free cash flow$17.9M
Total debt—
Net cash$92.1M

Capital returns

Buyback yield1.0%
Dividend yield (est.)—
Shareholder yield1.0%
Shares Δ YoY+15.3%

Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.

Disclosure timeline

SEC · 8-Ks + reports
Routine disclosure cadence — no material red flags in recent filings.
  1. 8-K Shareholder vote2026-05-26
  2. 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-05-07
  3. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-07
  4. 8-K Earnings results2026-05-06
  5. DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-04-10
  6. 8-K Earnings results2026-03-13
  7. 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-03-12
  8. 10-K Annual report2026-03-12
  9. 8-K Material agreement2026-01-30

Recent filings

all on EDGAR ↗
144Filing2026-07-01open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-06-30open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-302026-06-30open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-262026-06-29open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-262026-05-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-262026-05-27open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-212026-05-26open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-212026-05-22open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-212026-05-22open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-212026-05-22open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-062026-05-07open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-07open ↗

Quality score

A-
ValueGrowthProfitHealthMom.
ValueA+
GrowthA+
ProfitabilityB+
Financial healthA-
MomentumC
  • ✓Profitable (positive net income)
  • ✓Return on equity above 15%
  • ✓P/E below 25

Fair value est.

$104.50

Undervalued +463% vs price

cheapfair valueexpensive

Modified Graham: EPS $2.75 × (8.5 + 1.5 × 22.0% growth) × 1.00 quality = 38.0× multiple. An estimate, not a price target.

16.3352-week20.76
Revenue
—
Net margin
—
ROE
15.6%
P/E
6.8

SEC fundamentals · FY 2025

'21'22'23'24'25

■ revenue · ■ net income, by fiscal year

Net income$105M+53.5%
Diluted EPS$2.75+44.0%
Cash & equivalents$92.1M+84.6%
Total assets$7.38B+33.5%
Total liabilities$6.71B+33.9%
Stockholders' equity$673M+30.1%
L/E: 9.97x

Frequently asked

Is Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) a buy?
VEL currently carries a Buy rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Cheap specialty lender compounding earnings >40%/yr at 6.4x P/E; leverage is high but structural to the securitization model.
What is VEL's fair value?
A Modified-Graham model based on VEL's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $104.50. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
Is VEL overvalued or undervalued?
Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, VEL currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
What is Velocity Financial, Inc.'s quality score?
VEL scores 81.77566263036712/100 (grade A-) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001692376, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 3:20:03 PM.

›About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice

AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.

Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 11:20 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.

Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.

Insider activity

Form 4 · SEC

Last 90 days: 0 open-market buys · 1 sale

2026-06-30
Kelly Roland Thomas
Chief Legal Officer and GC
Acquired (J)858.00 @ $18.46$15.8K
2026-06-30
Farrar Christopher D.
Chief Executive Officer
Acquired (J)1.27K @ $18.46$23.5K
2026-06-26
Szczepaniak Mark R
Chief Financial Officer
Sell1.57K @ $18.07$28.4K
2026-05-26
Pitstick John
Director
Disposed (D)3.60K @ $17.17$61.9K
2026-05-26
Schaefer Joy L.
Director
Disposed (D)3.60K @ $17.17$61.9K
2026-05-21
Beckett Dorika M
Director
Award5.41K @ $17.55$95.0K
2026-05-21
Schaefer Joy L.
Director
Award5.41K @ $17.55$95.0K
2026-05-21
Pitstick John
Director
Award5.41K @ $17.55$95.0K

Earnings history

beat/miss · move
2026-05-06Beat +5.2% est▼ -10.30%8-K ↗
2026-03-13Beat +37.4% est▼ -3.22%8-K ↗
2026-01-26Beat +37.4% est▲ +3.82%8-K ↗
2025-11-07Beat +12.9% est▲ +1.56%8-K ↗
2025-08-08Beat +35.5% est▲ +16.29%8-K ↗
2025-05-02—▼ -4.24%8-K ↗

Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.

Vs tracked universe

compare →

1195 tracked peers · median

TENK Score82 vs 67
Revenue growth— vs 7.5%
Net margin— vs 10.0%
Return on equity15.6% vs 12.0%
P/E6.8 vs 26.2