ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
Next earnings Aug 17, 2026 · consensus $3.60 EPS, $14.6B rev
$23.08
▲ +4.06%$23.08▲ +33.94%
over 1Y
L $17.15H $25.88
Today+4.1%
1W+5.9%
1M+2.2%
3M-6.0%
YTD+9.3%
1Y+33.9%
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 20 analysts
Buy
China's leading express courier compounds 15.7% revenue growth at a 13.8x P/E with a fortress balance sheet and a growing dividend.
Revenue $7.02B · FY2025
The read
Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~89% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.
ZTO Express is the scale leader in China's parcel-delivery market, and the FY2025 numbers show a business still growing strongly: revenue rose 15.7% to $7.02B and net income grew 7.5% to $1.30B, continuing a multi-year climb from $4.77B revenue/$746M net income in FY2021. Diluted EPS of $1.60 (up 8.8%) against a $22.00 share price puts the stock at just 13.8x earnings — a modest multiple for a business with an 18.5% net margin and 21.3% operating margin.
The balance sheet is a genuine strength. Equity grew 11.6% to $9.49B against total liabilities of only $3.42B (down 16.0%), a conservative 0.36x liabilities-to-equity ratio. Operating cash flow of $1.71B comfortably covers $746M of capex, leaving room for the $537M dividend and $179M of buybacks. Retained earnings rose 14.6% to $6.14B, evidence of consistent, self-funded compounding.
Is ZTO a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
The options angle
model · matches our verdictBull call spread~90d expiry
- Long call 23 @ ~1.09 est
- Short call 25 @ ~0.35 est
debit $74max +$126max −$74BE 23.74
BUY verdict with defined risk: the short call finances part of the long one; max loss is the net debit.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.77B | $5.13B | $5.41B | $6.07B | $7.02B |
| Gross profit | $1.03B | $1.31B | $1.64B | $1.88B | $1.75B |
| Operating income | $864M | $1.12B | $1.41B | $1.61B | $1.50B |
| Net income | $746M | $987M | $1.23B | $1.21B | $1.30B |
| Diluted EPS | $0.91 | $1.21 | $1.49 | $1.47 | $1.60 |
| Net margin | 15.6% | 19.2% | 22.8% | 19.9% | 18.5% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$17.7B
EV / EBITDA8.9
EV / Sales2.5
EV / FCF18.3
P / FCF18.2
PEG (trailing)1.92
Earnings yield7.4%
FCF yield5.5%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)10.7%
Free cash flow$966M
Total debt$1.56B
Net cash-$132M
Altman Z-Score4.81 safe
Piotroski F-Score7/8
Capital returns
Buyback yield1.0%
Dividend yield (est.)3.1%
Shareholder yield4.1%
Shares Δ YoY-1.0%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-292026-06-29open ↗144Filing2026-06-24open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-222026-06-22open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-222026-06-22open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-162026-06-16open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-152026-06-15open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-082026-06-08open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-022026-06-02open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-06-012026-06-01open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-05-262026-05-26open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-05-202026-05-20open ↗6-KPeriod ending 2026-05-072026-05-07open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) a buy?
- ZTO currently carries a Buy rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. China's leading express courier compounds 15.7% revenue growth at a 13.8x P/E with a fortress balance sheet and a growing dividend.
- What is ZTO's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on ZTO's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $43.56. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, ZTO currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s quality score?
- ZTO scores 78.8056956067531/100 (grade B+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001677250, latest 6-K filed 2026-06-29) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 8:42:59 PM.
About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 4:42 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.