The Flip Side — 18 verdicts flipped this week · net -4 toward caution
The desk leaned cautious this week — 7 upgrades to 11 downgrades, most-changed in Health Care.
The desk leaned cautious this week — 7 upgrades to 11 downgrades, most-changed in Health Care.
The flip of the week
BUY → HOLD. Elite, cash-gushing HCM compounder — but at its multiple for ~9% growth, the quality is fully in the price. Revenue $20.6B (FY2025).
Upgrades (7)
HOLD → BUY. Elite alt-asset franchise with booming cash flow and gold-standard fund IRRs; GAAP EPS dip is Athene mark-to-market noise, not fee decay. Revenue $32.0B (FY2025).
HOLD → BUY. Quality cash machine pivoting from soft oilfield services to structural LNG/data-center gas demand — fair price, real catalysts. Operating cash flow $3.81B (FY2025).
SELL → HOLD. AI-server boom is real, but its multiple on a 20%-gross-margin box maker prices in the good news — own it, don't chase it. Revenue $114B (+18.8% YoY) (FY2026).
HOLD → BUY. Post-Family Dollar spinout, DLTR is a cleaner, profitable pure-play compounding at ~its multiple with 34% ROE and heavy buybacks. Revenue $19.4B (FY2026).
HOLD → BUY. Post-offshore-wind cleanup leaves a pure regulated utility at ~15x with 5–7% guided growth and a ~4% yield — fair to cheap. Diluted EPS (FY2025) $4.56 (FY2025).
SELL → HOLD. Cheap at its multiple with $21B operating cash flow, but a $8.2B GAAP loss and shrinking equity keep this a hold, not a buy. Net income -$8.16B (FY2025).
HOLD → BUY. Deep-value media turnaround: below book, its multiple, positive cash flow, and a freshly-capitalized Ellison/Skydance reset — worth the risk. Revenue $29.2B (FY2024).
Downgrades (10)
BUY → HOLD. High-quality water-heater cash machine — 29% ROE, fortress balance sheet — but flat revenue and a China overhang cap it at a fair 16x. Return on equity 29.4% (FY2025).
BUY → HOLD. Quality diagnostics leader with recovering margins and record revenue, but its multiple on ~4% organic growth caps the upside. Revenue (FY2025) $14.0B (FY2025).
HOLD → SELL. Fortress balance sheet can't offset four flat years, eroding operating profit, and a 31x multiple for a no-growth business. Revenue $4.03B (YoY +0.9%) (FY2025).
BUY → HOLD. Best-in-class balance sheet and cheap-looking its multiple, but earnings are merger-inflated, gas-cyclical, and the CEO just left — own, don't chase. Revenue $12.1B (FY2025).
BUY → HOLD. Cheap, cash-gushing media house — but FY2025's blowout leaned on Super Bowl LIX and election ad dollars that don't repeat. Diluted EPS $4.91 (FY2025).
BUY → HOLD. Cheap, durable staple with a covered dividend — but a 73% operating-profit collapse and a GAAP loss make it a value hold, not a buy. Diluted EPS (GAAP) $(0.16) (FY2026).
BUY → HOLD. Cheap, cash-rich and newly very profitable — but the 2028 JAKAFI patent cliff caps the multiple and the call. Revenue (FY2025) $5.14B (FY2025).
BUY → HOLD. World-class AI franchise compounding at extraordinary margins, but ~its multiple and —T cap price in continued perfection. Revenue (FY2026) $216B (FY2026).
BUY → HOLD. Quality assets (Dow Jones, 61% REA) and a net-cash balance sheet, but flat revenue and a one-off-flattered its multiple argue for owning, not adding. Diluted EPS $2.07 (FY2025).
HOLD → SELL. Good AI-materials business, but its multiple for flat EPS and a freshly spin-off-levered balance sheet skews risk to the downside. Diluted EPS $3.30 (YoY -0.3%) (FY2025).
New coverage
Initiated at BUY, conviction 4/5. Revenue (FY2025) $554M (FY2025).
Initiated at HOLD, conviction 2/5. Net income -$14.5B (FY2025).
Initiated at BUY, conviction 4/5. Revenue (FY2026) $955M (FY2026).
Initiated at HOLD, conviction 3/5. Revenue $678M (FY2025).
Initiated at BUY, conviction 4/5. Revenue (FY2025) $1.23B (FY2025).
Initiated at BUY, conviction 3/5. Revenue $709M (FY2026).
Initiated at HOLD, conviction 3/5. Revenue $29.3B (FY2025).
Initiated at SELL, conviction 3/5. Revenue (FY2025) $2.50B (FY2025).
Initiated at HOLD, conviction 3/5. Revenue (FY2025) $1.75B (FY2025).
Initiated at HOLD, conviction 3/5. Revenue (FY2025) $643M (FY2025).
Conviction moves
- ED (HOLD) — conviction 2 → 4. Revenue (FY2025) $17.0B (FY2025).
- VTRS (HOLD) — conviction 2 → 4. Operating cash flow $2.32B (FY2025).
- ACN (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Return on equity 24.6% (FY2025).
- AEE (HOLD) — conviction 4 → 3. Revenue $8.80B (FY2025).
- BBY (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue $41.7B (FY2026).
- BIIB (HOLD) — conviction 4 → 3. Revenue $9.89B (FY2025).
- CINF (BUY) — conviction 4 → 3. Return on equity 15.0% (FY2025).
- CMCSA (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Diluted EPS $5.39 (FY2025).
- CRH (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue (FY2025) $37.4B (FY2025).
- CTVA (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Operating cash flow $3.41B (FY2025).
- DAL (BUY) — conviction 4 → 3. Operating income $5.82B (YoY -2.9%) (FY2025).
- DLR (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue $6.11B (FY2025).
- DPZ (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue $4.94B (+5.0% YoY) (FY2025).
- EVRG (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Diluted EPS $3.66 (FY2025).
- EXPE (BUY) — conviction 4 → 3. Operating income $1.87B (FY2025).
- MCK (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Diluted EPS $38.38 (FY2026).
- MKC (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue (FY2025) $6.84B (FY2025).
- MLM (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Net income $1.14B (FY2025).
- NDAQ (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue (FY2025) $8.26B (FY2025).
- NEE (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Diluted EPS $3.30 (FY2025).
- NWSA (BUY) — conviction 4 → 3. Net income $1.18B (YoY +343.6%) (FY2025).
- PNC (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Net income $7.00B (FY2025).
- PNW (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue $5.34B (FY2025).
- PPL (HOLD) — conviction 4 → 3. Revenue $9.17B (FY2025).
- SATS (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 2. Net income (FY2025) -$14.5B (FY2025).
- SCHW (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue $23.9B (FY2025).
- TSLA (SELL) — conviction 4 → 3. Diluted EPS $1.08 (YoY -47.1%) (FY2025).
- VST (HOLD) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue $17.6B (FY2025).
- WDAY (BUY) — conviction 3 → 4. Revenue $9.55B (FY2026).
Where the changes clustered
- Health Care: 0 up · 3 down
- Information Technology: 1 up · 2 down
- Communication Services: 1 up · 2 down
- Industrials: 0 up · 2 down
- Energy: 1 up · 1 down
- Consumer Staples: 1 up · 1 down
Held the line
- KNSL held BUY (conviction 5/5). Diluted EPS $21.65 (FY2025).
- A held HOLD (conviction 4/5). Revenue $6.95B (FY2025).
- AAL held SELL (conviction 4/5). Stockholders' equity -$3.73B (FY2025).
Capitol flow
338 trades disclosed across 33 members — net buyers by disclosed value, with a median 24-day reporting lag.
- INTC — Congress net bought vs our SELL (against our call); 3 trades, 3 members.
- AMP — Congress net sold vs our BUY (against our call); 1 trade, 1 member.
- UBER — Congress net bought vs our BUY; 2 trades, 2 members.
- MSFT — Congress net bought vs our BUY; 5 trades, 4 members.
- FLEX — Congress net sold vs our SELL; 4 trades, 1 member.
Filings that move verdicts
- EVRG — Agreement terminated: a agreement terminated at a name we rate HOLD — on watch toward caution into next print.
- NDAQ — Agreement terminated: a agreement terminated at a name we rate HOLD — on watch toward caution into next print.
- XOM — Delisting notice: a delisting notice at a name we rate HOLD — on watch toward caution into next print.
- APD — Material impairment: a material impairment at a name we rate HOLD — on watch toward caution into next print.
- ZBH — Agreement terminated: a agreement terminated at a name we rate HOLD — on watch toward caution into next print.
- ED — Officer / director change: a officer / director change at a name we rate HOLD — on watch toward caution into next print.
The week ahead
- ESI reports 2026-07-06 (after close) — we rate it HOLD.
- CAG reports 2026-07-08 (after close) — we rate it HOLD.
- PSMT reports 2026-07-08 — we rate it HOLD.
- PEP reports 2026-07-09 (before open) — we rate it HOLD.
- DAL reports 2026-07-09 (before open) — we rate it BUY.
- CTAS reports 2026-07-09 (after close) — we rate it HOLD.