AAON
AAON, INC.
Next earnings Aug 10, 2026 · consensus $0.50 EPS, $498M rev
Last earnings +31.5% on 2026-05-07
$107.62
▼ -14.39%$107.62▲ +46.55%
over 1Y
L $71.77H $148.15
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-14.4%
1W-19.2%
1M-25.0%
3M+32.4%
YTD+36.2%
1Y+46.5%
Sell
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 12 analysts
Strong Buy
Premium HVAC and data-center cooling grower with a great top line, but margins and cash flow just cratered and the stock trades at a stretched 106x.
Revenue $1.44B · FY2025
The read
Weak on both the fundamentals and the price — little to like at the current level.
AAON makes premium, semi-custom commercial HVAC and is increasingly a data-center liquid-cooling play, which has made it a market darling. The growth is real: revenue rose 20.1% to $1.44B, continuing a powerful multi-year ramp from $535M in FY2021, and the company is investing hard to scale capacity (total assets up 43.5%, D&A up 26.2%, R&D up 23.0% to $58.2M). It carries essentially no debt (zero current debt) and a solid equity base of $895M.
But FY2025 was a margin and cash-flow setback that the valuation does not forgive. Despite 20% revenue growth, gross profit fell 2.9%, operating income dropped 30.1% to $146M, and net income fell 36.2% to $108M — gross margin compressed to 26.7% and net margin to 7.5%, with EPS down to $1.29. Most striking, operating cash flow collapsed 99.7% to just $534K as the company poured cash into a 78.0% surge in current assets (inventory/receivables) to support the buildout, leaving the cash balance at a negligible level. Growth is being funded by working capital rather than self-funded.
Is AAON a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
The options angle
model · matches our verdictBear put spread~60d expiry
- Long put 108 @ ~11.61 est
- Short put 97 @ ~6.43 est
debit $518max +$582max −$518BE 102.82
SELL verdict, defined risk: profits into weakness down to the short strike; max loss is the net debit.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $535M | $889M | $1.17B | $1.20B | $1.44B |
| Gross profit | $138M | $238M | $399M | $397M | $386M |
| Operating income | $69.3M | $127M | $227M | $209M | $146M |
| Net income | $58.8M | $100M | $178M | $169M | $108M |
| Diluted EPS | $0.73 | $1.24 | $2.13 | $2.02 | $1.29 |
| Net margin | 11.0% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 7.5% |
10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$8.82B
EV / EBITDA39.1
EV / Sales6.1
EV / FCF—
P / FCF—
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield1.2%
FCF yield-0.6%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)12.9%
Free cash flow-$53.5M
Total debt$0.00
Net cash$13.0K
Piotroski F-Score3/8
Capital returns
Buyback yield—
Dividend yield (est.)0.4%
Shareholder yield0.4%
Shares Δ YoY-0.1%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsSome governance/structural items recently, but no outright red flags.
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-022026-06-08open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-022026-06-05open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-292026-06-01open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-292026-06-01open ↗144Filing2026-05-29open ↗SDFiling2026-05-29open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-262026-05-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-262026-05-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-202026-05-26open ↗144Filing2026-05-26open ↗144Filing2026-05-26open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-122026-05-18open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is AAON, INC. (AAON) a buy?
- AAON currently carries a Sell rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Premium HVAC and data-center cooling grower with a great top line, but margins and cash flow just cratered and the stock trades at a stretched 106x.
- What is AAON's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on AAON's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $10.97. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is AAON overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, AAON currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is AAON, INC.'s quality score?
- AAON scores 56.50301454393926/100 (grade C) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000824142, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 8:46:54 PM.
About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 4:46 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.