ARCT

Arcturus is a pre-commercial mRNA drug developer whose economics are still binary. FY2025 revenue fell 46% to $82.0M (it is lumpy collaboration/milestone income, not product sales), the operating margin is -93.0%, and the company burned $74.3M of operating cash while posting a -$65.8M net loss. Revenue has now declined three straight years off the 2022 peak ($206M → $167M → $152M → $82.0M), so there is no growth story to underwrite — only a pipeline bet. Return on equity is -30.7% and accumulated deficit stands at -$515M.

The most important disclosure is qualitative: CSL Limited, Arcturus's KOSTAIVE partner, took an ~$430M accounting write-down on the collaboration in February 2026, citing 'declining COVID-19 disease burden and more onerous U.S. regulatory requirements.' That is the partner marking down the one approved, commercialized asset (KOSTAIVE is cleared in Japan/EU/UK), and Arcturus is simultaneously in ICC arbitration with CSL Seqirus over an unpaid EU marketing-authorization milestone — with a hearing not until Q3 2026. The remaining value drivers, ARCT-032 (cystic fibrosis) and ARCT-810 (OTC deficiency), are still Phase 2 with only a handful of patients dosed; a self-directed investor cannot handicap those readouts, which is the definition of unknowable risk.