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Research & education only — not financial advice.TENK is not a registered investment adviser; calls are impersonal, generated from SEC filings and a delayed/third-party price feed, and may be wrong or out of date. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates — see Disclosures. Do your own research.

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TTENK/calls
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Home›Stocks›SAFT
SAFT logo

SAFT

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC

Next earnings Aug 4, 2026 · consensus $2.04 EPS

Last earnings -0.1% on 2026-05-06

Buy
$77.47
▲ +3.25%
$77.47▲ +2.59%
over 1Y
L $64.90H $78.43
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+3.3%
1W+6.9%
1M+11.8%
3M+7.4%
YTD+4.9%
1Y+2.6%
OverviewFinancialsValuationQualityTimelineFilings
Rating
Buy
Quality
A-
Valuation
Undervalued
Filings
Clean
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 6 analysts
Sell

Cheap regional auto/home insurer compounding rate hikes into earnings — 11x P/E, 11% ROE, fortress balance sheet, fat dividend.

Revenue $1.26B · FY2025

The read

Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~229% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.

Safety Insurance is a focused Massachusetts-centric P&C carrier (95% MA, with NH/ME ramping) where the numbers and the filing language tell the same story: a hard market in personal auto and homeowners is finally flowing through to the bottom line. FY2025 revenue grew 12.8% to $1.26B and net income jumped 40.3% to $99.3M, driven not by volume games but by approved rate increases — the 10-K explicitly attributes premium growth to rate, citing average written premium per policy up 8.1% in Private Passenger Auto, 4.6% in Commercial Auto, and 9.7% in Homeowners. The MD&A's rate-filing table shows the rate machine is still grinding: MA Private Passenger Auto +5.3% (Jan-25), +5.1% (Jul-25), +1.3% (Jan-26); MA Homeowners +4.2% (Aug-25); Maine Commercial Auto +14.8% (Dec-25). Earned premium lags written premium, so a meaningful chunk of 2025's approved rate is still ahead of the income statement in 2026.

The balance sheet is conservatively run for an insurer. Liabilities/equity of 1.77x is low for the industry, long-term debt is just $50M against $892M of equity, cash grew 25% to $73.9M, and operating cash flow surged 51% to $194M — well above net income, consistent with a healthy reserve build during rate hardening. The A.M. Best 'A (Excellent)' rating was reaffirmed June 2025. The earnings recovery from the FY2023 trough ($18.9M) to FY2024 ($70.7M) to FY2025 ($99.3M) shows the rate cycle is doing exactly what it should after the post-pandemic loss-cost spike.

Is SAFT a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →

The options angle

model · matches our verdict
Bull call spread (wide)~60d expiry
  • Long call 77 @ ~3.31 est
  • Short call 89 @ ~0.24 est
debit $307max +$893max −$307BE 80.07

High-conviction BUY: a wider spread keeps more of the upside while the short call still cuts cost and decay.

Open in the calculator →

Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.

Financials · annual, by fiscal year

Line itemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue$885M$798M$931M$1.12B$1.26B
Gross profit—————
Operating income—————
Net income$131M$46.6M$18.9M$70.7M$99.3M
Diluted EPS$8.80$3.15$1.28$4.78$6.70
Net margin14.8%5.8%2.0%6.3%7.9%

10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →

Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.

Key statistics

Valuation

Enterprise value—
EV / EBITDA—
EV / Sales—
EV / FCF—
P / FCF5.9
PEG (trailing)0.29
Earnings yield8.7%
FCF yield16.9%

Quality & risk

ROIC (est.)—
Free cash flow$192M
Total debt$80.0M
Net cash-$6.10M
Piotroski F-Score6/7

Capital returns

Buyback yield2.1%
Dividend yield (est.)4.7%
Shareholder yield6.8%
Shares Δ YoY-1.4%

Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.

Disclosure timeline

SEC · 8-Ks + reports
Recent disclosure tone has been improving.
  1. 8-K Material agreement2026-06-15

    New credit facility / debt arrangement entered; LT debt up to $50M from $30M

  2. 8-K Shareholder vote2026-05-14

    Annual meeting vote results disclosed; routine governance

  3. 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-08

    Q1 2026 10-Q filed; continues FY25 momentum on rate increases

  4. 8-K Earnings results2026-05-06

    Q1 2026 earnings release; follows strong FY25 EPS +40%

  5. DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-03-31

    2026 proxy filed; routine governance, exec comp and director slate

  6. 10-K Annual report2026-02-27

    FY25 10-K: NI $99.3M (+40%), rate hikes driving 7.5% NWP growth, A.M. Best A

  7. 8-K Earnings results2026-02-25

    Q4/FY25 earnings: revenue $1.26B (+12.8%), EPS $6.70 (+40%)

  8. 10-Q Quarterly report2025-11-07

    Q3 2025 10-Q; rate increases boosting written premium per policy

  9. 8-K Earnings results2025-11-03

    Q3 2025 earnings release with financial exhibits

Recent filings

all on EDGAR ↗
8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-092026-06-15open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-132026-05-14open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-05-12open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-08open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-062026-05-06open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-30open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-29open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-04-13open ↗ARSPeriod ending 2025-12-312026-03-31open ↗DEF 14APeriod ending 2025-12-312026-03-31open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-03-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-202026-03-23open ↗

Quality score

A-
ValueGrowthProfitHealthMom.
ValueA
GrowthA
ProfitabilityC+
Financial healthA-
MomentumA
  • ✓Revenue growing year-over-year
  • ✓Profitable (positive net income)
  • ✗Net margin above 10%
  • ✗Return on equity above 15%
  • ✓P/E below 25

Fair value est.

$254.60

Undervalued +229% vs price

cheapfair valueexpensive

Modified Graham: EPS $6.70 × (8.5 + 1.5 × 22.0% growth) × 1.00 quality = 38.0× multiple. An estimate, not a price target.

64.9052-week78.44
Revenue
$1.26B
+12.8% YoY
Net margin
7.9%
ROE
11.1%
P/E
11.6

SEC fundamentals · FY 2025

'21'22'23'24'25

■ revenue · ■ net income, by fiscal year

Revenue$1.26B+12.8%
Net income$99.3M+40.3%
Diluted EPS$6.70+40.2%
Cash & equivalents$73.9M+25.3%
Total assets$2.47B+8.9%
Total liabilities$1.58B+9.5%
Stockholders' equity$892M+7.7%
L/E: 1.77x

Frequently asked

Is SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC (SAFT) a buy?
SAFT currently carries a Buy rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Cheap regional auto/home insurer compounding rate hikes into earnings — 11x P/E, 11% ROE, fortress balance sheet, fat dividend.
What is SAFT's fair value?
A Modified-Graham model based on SAFT's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $254.60. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
Is SAFT overvalued or undervalued?
Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, SAFT currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
What is SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC's quality score?
SAFT scores 80.01396887184082/100 (grade A-) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001172052, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-08) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/25/2026, 2:13:15 PM.

›About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice

AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.

Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 25, 2026, 10:13 AM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.

Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.

Insider activity

Form 4 · SEC
2026-03-20
SRB CORP
10% owner
Sell14.2K @ $71.12$1.01M
2026-03-17
SRB CORP
10% owner
Sell1.20K @ $73.06$87.6K
2026-03-02
Lam Brian Siu-Gae
VP of Insurance Operations
Tax17.00 @ $76.18$1.30K
2026-03-02
Lam Brian Siu-Gae
VP of Insurance Operations
Tax176.00 @ $76.89$13.5K
2026-03-02
Drago John Patrick
VP - MARKETING
Tax1.00 @ $75.44$75.44
2026-03-02
Drago John Patrick
VP - MARKETING
Tax283.00 @ $76.86$21.8K
2026-03-02
Whitford Christopher Thomas
VP, CFO AND SECRETARY
Tax27.00 @ $76.19$2.06K
2026-03-02
Whitford Christopher Thomas
VP, CFO AND SECRETARY
Tax289.00 @ $76.89$22.2K
2026-03-02
Varga Stephen Albert
VP - MIS
Tax41.00 @ $76.18$3.12K
2026-03-02
Varga Stephen Albert
VP - MIS
Tax428.00 @ $76.89$32.9K
2026-03-02
Narciso Paul J
VP - CLAIMS
Tax23.00 @ $76.19$1.75K
2026-03-02
Narciso Paul J
VP - CLAIMS
Tax243.00 @ $76.89$18.7K

Dividends

Quarterly
Yield (TTM)
4.8%
Annual / share
$3.68
Last ex-date
2026-06-01
Last amount
$0.92
ex 2026-06-01paid 2026-06-12$0.92
ex 2026-03-02paid 2026-03-13$0.92
ex 2025-12-01paid 2025-12-15$0.92
ex 2025-09-02paid 2025-09-15$0.92
ex 2025-06-02paid 2025-06-13$0.90
ex 2025-03-03paid 2025-03-14$0.90

Source: EODHD. Yield = trailing-12-month dividends ÷ price.

Earnings history

beat/miss · move
2026-05-06—▼ -0.12%8-K ↗
2026-02-25—▲ +1.32%8-K ↗
2025-11-03—▼ -0.73%8-K ↗
2025-08-06Miss -11.2% est▲ +0.27%8-K ↗
2025-05-07Beat +16.1% est▼ -0.62%8-K ↗
2025-02-25Miss -21.2% est▲ +1.72%8-K ↗

Dates from 8-K (Item 2.02); beat/miss = reported EPS vs consensus (Finnhub, recent quarters); move = prior close → close on/after.

Recent news

market news →
Notable Two Hundred Day Moving Average Cross - SAFTBullish
nasdaq.com· 2026-03-03
Safety Insurance Group Inc Announces Rise In Q4 IncomeBullish
nasdaq.com· 2026-02-25
3 Undiscovered Gems In The US Market With Solid PotentialBullish
finance.yahoo.com· 2026-02-18
3 Undiscovered Gems In The US Market To Enhance Your PortfolioBullish
finance.yahoo.com· 2025-12-15
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT): A Bull Case TheoryBullish
finance.yahoo.com· 2025-12-05
Notable Two Hundred Day Moving Average Cross - SAFTBullish
nasdaq.com· 2025-12-04

Vs tracked universe

compare →

1195 tracked peers · median

TENK Score80 vs 67
Revenue growth12.8% vs 7.5%
Net margin7.9% vs 10.0%
Return on equity11.1% vs 12.0%
P/E11.6 vs 26.2