SAIA
SAIA INC
Next earnings Jul 23, 2026 (before open) · consensus $3.36 EPS, $960M rev
Last earnings +6.3% on 2026-04-30
$416.69
▼ -2.12%$416.69▲ +52.08%
over 1Y
L $250.48H $487.14
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-2.1%
1W-3.9%
1M-11.6%
3M+17.6%
YTD+23.6%
1Y+52.1%
Hold
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 26 analysts
Buy
A best-in-class LTL grower, but earnings fell 30% in a soft freight market and 45.7x P/E prices a recovery not yet visible.
Revenue $3.23B · FY2025
The read
Middling fundamentals and a rich price (~81% above fair value) leave little margin of safety — a wait-and-see.
Saia is a high-quality less-than-truckload carrier in the middle of an aggressive terminal-expansion phase, and FY2025 shows the cost of that investment colliding with a soft freight market. Revenue was essentially flat at $3.23B (+0.8%), but net income fell 29.6% to $255M (EPS $9.52, -29.5%) and operating income dropped 27.0% to $352M, compressing the operating margin to 10.9% and ROE to 9.9%. The decline reflects the drag of opening new terminals ahead of the volume to fill them, combined with a weak industrial/freight backdrop — classic for an LTL carrier investing through the cycle.
The balance sheet and cash generation remain strong. Operating cash flow held up at $595M (+1.9%), long-term debt is minimal at $163M (down 16.0%) against $2.58B of equity, and capex was scaled back 45.6% to $568M after the heavy build-out years, which should ease the near-term drag. Equity grew 11.5% and retained earnings 12.6%, so the franchise is compounding book value even through the earnings dip.
Is SAIA a buy? The one-page verdict, explained →
The options angle
model · matches our verdictCovered call~60d expiry
- Long 100 shares @ ~416.69
- Short call 440 @ ~17.59 est
debit $39,910max +$4,090max −$39,909BE 399.10
HOLD means own it, don't chase it — harvesting premium against the position matches the verdict.
Educational template, not a trade recommendation. Strikes and premiums are Black-Scholes model estimates from the last close and 30-day realized volatility — real chains, spreads and IV will differ. Options involve substantial risk.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.29B | $2.79B | $2.88B | $3.21B | $3.23B |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $335M | $470M | $460M | $482M | $352M |
| Net income | $253M | $357M | $355M | $362M | $255M |
| Diluted EPS | $9.48 | $13.40 | $13.26 | $13.51 | $9.52 |
| Net margin | 11.1% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 7.9% |
10-year statements — income, cash flow, balance sheet & CSV export →
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$11.2B
EV / EBITDA18.7
EV / Sales3.5
EV / FCF411.1
P / FCF405.5
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield2.3%
FCF yield0.2%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)10.1%
Free cash flow$27.3M
Total debt$172M
Net cash-$152M
Piotroski F-Score5/8
Capital returns
Buyback yield—
Dividend yield (est.)—
Shareholder yield—
Shares Δ YoY+0.2%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRoutine disclosure cadence — no material red flags in recent filings.
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-022026-06-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-202026-05-21open ↗144Filing2026-05-20open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-132026-05-15open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-15open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-112026-05-13open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-302026-05-06open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-042026-05-06open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-042026-05-06open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-042026-05-06open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-042026-05-06open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-042026-05-06open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is SAIA INC (SAIA) a buy?
- SAIA currently carries a Hold rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. A best-in-class LTL grower, but earnings fell 30% in a soft freight market and 45.7x P/E prices a recovery not yet visible.
- What is SAIA's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on SAIA's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $80.92. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is SAIA overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, SAIA currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is SAIA INC's quality score?
- SAIA scores 59.273158036109855/100 (grade C) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001177702, latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-30) · EODHD · Proprietary analysis · as of 6/21/2026, 8:48:11 PM.
About this recommendation — produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg · not investment advice
AI-generated analysis, produced by our proprietary engine from SEC filing data.
Investment recommendation produced by TENK/calls (tenkcalls.com), Luxembourg. Completed Jun 21, 2026, 4:48 PM ET. Ratings & methodology: definitions · All recommendations to date: track record · Conflicts: disclosures. Not investment advice.
Research and education only — not financial advice. TENKis not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities TENK rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.